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2025 Ontario general election

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2025 Ontario general election
← 2022 February 27, 2025[1]
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election 83 seats, 40.82% 31 seats, 23.74%
Current seats 79 28
Seats needed Steady Increase 35
 
Leader Bonnie Crombie Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since December 2, 2023 November 15, 2009
Leader's seat Running in Mississauga East—Cooksville Guelph
Last election 8 seats, 23.85% 1 seat, 5.96%
Current seats 9 2
Seats needed Increase 54 Increase 61
Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



The 2025 Ontario general election will take place on February 27, 2025, to elect the 44th Parliament of Ontario.[2] On January 24, 2025, Premier Doug Ford confirmed that he would be asking the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the legislature and call for a snap election.[2]

The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC) government, led by Premier Doug Ford since 2018, will be seeking re-election to a third consecutive term. The PC's primary opponents are the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Marit Stiles, the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) led by Bonnie Crombie, and the Green Party of Ontario (GPO) led by Mike Schreiner.

Background

[edit]

Under the Ontario Elections Act, general elections must be held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following the previous general election.[3] As the previous election was held on June 2, 2022, this election would be held on June 4, 2026. However, it has been speculated since early 2024 that Premier Doug Ford would call a snap election to take advantage of a lead in the polls and fundraising, as well as a desire to hold the election before the next federal election, which the Conservative Party is projected to win.[4][5] This speculation was fuelled in May 2024, when Ford refused to commit to the June 2026 date when asked by reporters at multiple press conferences.[6][7][8][4]

On January 23, 2025, multiple media outlets reported that Ford would visit Edith Dumont, the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario, on January 29 to ask for the 43rd Provincial Parliament to be dissolved, triggering an election to be held on February 27.[9][10][11] This was confirmed by Ford at a press conference on January 24.[12] On January 28, he met with Dumont; the Provincial Parliament was formally dissolved, with a writ of election issued the next day.[13][2][14] The election will cost $189 million.[citation needed]

Ridings

[edit]

The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[15] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[16] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[17][18] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[19]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario was allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the next provincial election.[20] As Northern Ontario lost a seat in the federal process, further adjustments would have been needed to maintain their extra provincial representation, which would have resulted in an extra additional riding.[21]

Timeline

[edit]

2022

[edit]

2023

[edit]

2025

[edit]
  • January 28: Writs of the election were drawn up, dissolving the Legislature and officially starting the campaign.
  • February 13: Nominations close.
  • February 14: First leaders' debate, organized by Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities.[30]
  • February 17: Second leaders' debate, organized by Broadcast Consortium.
  • February 27: Election day.

Seat changes

[edit]
43rd Legislative Assembly of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2022–2025)
Party 2022 Gain/(loss) due to 2025
Resignation
as MPP 		Resignation
from caucus 		Expulsion Byelection
gain 		Byelection
hold
Progressive Conservative 83 (4) (2) (1) 3 79
New Democratic 31 (2) (2) 1 28
Liberal 8 (1) 1 1 9
Green 1 1 2
Independent 1 2 3 6
Total 124 (7) – – 2 5 124
Changes in seats held since June 2, 2022
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Hamilton Centre August 15, 2022 Andrea Horwath[31][32] █ New Democratic Resignation from legislature.[a 1] March 16, 2023 Sarah Jama[33] █ New Democratic
Don Valley North March 10, 2023 Vincent Ke[34] █ PC Resignation from caucus.[a 2] █ Independent
Kanata—Carleton March 24, 2023 Merrilee Fullerton[35] █ PC Resignation from legislature. July 27, 2023 Karen McCrimmon[36] █ Liberal
Algoma—Manitoulin March 31, 2023 Michael Mantha[37] █ New Democratic Expelled from caucus.[a 3] █ Independent
Scarborough—Guildwood May 10, 2023 Mitzie Hunter[38] █ Liberal Resignation from legislature.[a 4] July 27, 2023 Andrea Hazell[39] █ Liberal
Kitchener Centre July 13, 2023 Laura Mae Lindo[40][41] █ New Democratic Resignation from legislature.[a 5] November 30, 2023 Aislinn Clancy[42] █ Green
Mississauga East—Cooksville September 20, 2023 Kaleed Rasheed[43] █ PC Resignation from caucus.[a 6] █ Independent
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex September 22, 2023 Monte McNaughton[44] █ PC Resignation from legislature[a 7] May 2, 2024 Steve Pinsonneault █ PC
Hamilton Centre October 23, 2023 Sarah Jama[45] █ New Democratic Expelled from caucus.[a 8] █ Independent
Milton January 25, 2024 Parm Gill[46] █ PC Resignation from legislature.[a 9] May 2, 2024 Zee Hamid █ PC
Carleton June 28, 2024 Goldie Ghamari[47] █ PC Expelled from caucus.[a 10] █ Independent
Bay of Quinte August 16, 2024 Todd Smith[48] █ PC Resignation from legislature.[a 7] September 19, 2024 Tyler Allsopp █ PC
  1. ^ to run for Mayor of Hamilton.
  2. ^ due to allegations that he was involved in the 2019 Canadian Parliament infiltration plot.
  3. ^ over workplace misconduct allegations.
  4. ^ to run for Mayor of Toronto.
  5. ^ to accept position at the University of Waterloo
  6. ^ after contradictory claims were made regarding a Las Vegas business trip.
  7. ^ a b to accept position in the private sector
  8. ^ over comments made regarding the Gaza war
  9. ^ to run in the next federal election
  10. ^ after meeting with far-right activist Tommy Robinson

By-election results

[edit]
Analysis of byelections by turnout and vote share for winning candidate (vs 2022)
Riding and winning party Turnout Vote share for winning candidate
% Change (pp) % Change (pp)
Hamilton Centre █ New Democratic Hold 21.97 -15.97
 
 54.28 -2.98
 
Kanata—Carleton █ Liberal Gain 35.14 -16.24
 
 34.53 20.44 20.44
 
Scarborough—Guildwood █ Liberal Hold 21.84 -19.79
 
 36.55 -9.75
 
Kitchener Centre █ Green Gain 27.28 -18.94
 
 47.99 35.19 35.19
 
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex █ Progressive Conservative Hold 30.25 -17.08
 
 56.85 -1.96
 
Milton █ Progressive Conservative Hold 27.72 -14.99
 
 47.04 3.97 3.97
 
Bay of Quinte █ Progressive Conservative Hold 38.45 -7.46
 
 38.69 -10.61
 

Candidates

[edit]
See also: Candidates of the 2025 Ontario general election

Incumbents not standing for re-election

[edit]

As of the candidate nomination deadline, 12 incumbent MPPs chose not to run in the 2025 Ontario election:

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution Date announced
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound   Rick Byers[49] September 10, 2024
Carleton   Goldie Ghamari[a 1][50] January 31, 2025
Eglinton—Lawrence   Robin Martin[51] November 1, 2024
Hamilton Mountain   Monique Taylor[52] September 9, 2024
Mississauga East—Cooksville   Kaleed Rasheed[a 1][53] October 11, 2024
Nepean   Lisa MacLeod[54] September 13, 2024
Ottawa Centre   Joel Harden[52] March 15, 2024
Parkdale—High Park   Bhutila Karpoche[52] September 29, 2024
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke   John Yakabuski[55] November 20, 2024
Sault Ste. Marie   Ross Romano[56] December 12, 2024
Wellington—Halton Hills   Ted Arnott[57] October 15, 2024
York South—Weston   Michael Ford[58] January 24, 2025

Campaign

[edit]

Ford's PCs launched their campaign in Windsor, in front of the Ambassador Bridge. Stiles' NDP launched their campaign in Toronto, while Crombie's Liberals launched their campaign in Barrie. Schreiner's Green's launched their campaign with a speech in Queen's Park.[59]

Contests

[edit]
Candidate contests in the ridings
Candidates nominated Ridings Party
PC Green NDP Lib NB Ont Ind Ltn NOTA Mod Oth Totals
3 1 1 1 1 3
4 5 5 5 5 5 20
5 30 30 30 30 30 24 1 1 1 3 150
6 44 44 44 44 43 40 17 9 5 4 4 10 264
7 24 24 24 24 24 24 13 18 2 4 3 8 168
8 17 17 17 17 17 17 11 9 8 4 3 16 136
9 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 1 2 27
Total 124 124 124 123 123 108 44 41 17 13 12 39 768

Issues

[edit]

In January 2025, Ford began to state that he would need a "clear mandate" from voters to respond to the tariffs on Canadian imports to the United States threatened by new President Donald Trump.[60][61]

2025 Ontario election – issues and respective party platforms
Issue PC NDP Liberal Green
Education
  • Invest an additional $830 million a year to clear the repair backlog within 10 years while keeping up with school maintenance needs.[62]
  • Create a universal School Food Program and use fresh food prepared and grown in Ontario.
  • End the practice of streaming.
  • Invest in Francophone education in French school boards and French immersion programs in the English system.
  • More school transportation funding.
  • Clearing the backlog in school repairs, supporting students with special needs, and extending OHIP to cover mental health care.[63]
Energy and Environment
  • Permanently cutting the provincial tax on gas by 5.7 cents per litre and on diesel by 5.3 cents.
  • Working with Indigenous communities to conserve 30% of natural areas by 2030.
  • End reliance on fossil fuels, invest in low-cost renewables and build climate-friendly transit options.[64]
Healthcare
  • Investing $1.8 billion more to connect everyone in Ontario to a family doctor and primary care.
  • Hiring of at least 15,000 nurses over the next three years to ensure safe staffing ratios and end the reliance on private agencies.[65]
  • Expand healthcare in Northern Ontario by hiring 350 doctors, including 200 family physicians and 150 specialists.
  • Establish a Northern Command Centre to manage capacity across the North.
  • Fast-track solutions in the first 100 days—more family health teams, shorter specialist wait times, and flexible care options.
  • Clear the path for 13,000 internationally trained doctors and increase residency spots province-wide.[66]
  • Guarantee a Family Doctor for all Ontarians by 2029.[67]
  • Two new hospitals in Huntsville and Bracebridge.
Housing
  • Create 60,000 new supportive housing units.[68]
  • Double the supply of permanently affordable homes, legalize fourplexes and increase density around transit, and provide funding for non-profit and co-op housing providers.
  • Reintroduce rent control, stopping unethical evictions.
  • Upload shelter funding to the provincial government.[69]
  • Eliminating the provincial Land Transfer Tax for first-time homebuyers, seniors downsizing, and non-profit home builders.[70]
  • Scrapping Development Charges on new middle-class housing, which can add up to $170,000 on the price of a new home, and replacing them with a Better Communities Fund to ensure that the province invests in and benefits from sustainable municipal growth.[71]
  • Introducing fair, phased-in rent control similar to Manitoba, resolving Landlord-Tenant Board disputes within two months, and establishing the Rental Emergency Support for Tenants (REST) Fund to help vulnerable renters avoid eviction during financial emergencies.[72]
  • Allowing for the construction of fourplexes and four-storey buildings as of right across the province and sixplexes in cities over 500,000, and midrise buildings of up to 6-11 storeys on transit corridors and main streets.
  • Removing development charges on homes, condos and apartment units under 2,000 square feet that are built within urban boundaries, and creating an Affordable Communities Fund to cover municipalities’ housing infrastructure costs.
  • Removing the Land Transfer Tax for first-time homebuyers.[73]
Agriculture
  • Immediately increasing funding to expand business risk management programs by $150 million annually.
  • Prioritizing Ontario-grown food by developing local procurement guidelines for public sector purchases, and establishing a fund to increase local processing capacity.
  • Creating an AgTech Innovation Fund.
  • Introducing a provincial program to pay farmers for environmental goods and services by working with organizations such as ALUS (Alternative Land Use Services).
  • Establish an Ontario Foodbelt to protect farmland.[74]
Infrastructure
  • Investing up to $15 billion more over three years to speed up key capital projects, including widening the QEW between Burlington and St. Catharines.[75]
  • Providing another $5 billion for the Building Ontario Fund, for a total of $8 billion, to invest in housing, long-term care, energy, transportation and municipal infrastructure projects.
  • Increasing the Community Sport and Recreation Fund by $300 million to help build more rinks, arenas, sports centres and other community infrastructure.
  • $56 million to upgrade and repair Highway 174 prior to it being uploaded to the province.[76]
  • $50 million to upgrade rural roads and highways outside the downtown core.
Social assistance
  • Double ODSP payments.[77]
  • Overhaul WSIB.
  • Expand workers’ health care benefits so they can receive the treatments they need, including mental health care.[78]
  • Create a Monthly Grocery Rebate
  • Forcing large retailers to publicly post when they raise prices more than two per cent in a week.
  • New watchdog to enforce competition laws and keep food prices fair.[79]
  • Double ODSP payments.[80]
Taxation
  • Cut the income tax rate for the middle-class.[81]
  • Eliminate sales tax (HST) on home heating and hydro bills.
Transportation
  • Investing more than $200 billion to build roads, highways, transit and other infrastructure projects while investing over $2.5 billion to train more than one million people for better jobs and bigger paycheques in the skilled trades.
  • Upload the upload Ottawa LRT system to the provincial government.
  • More than $50 million to design and build a new interchange at Highway 416 and Barnsdale Road.
  • $80 million to support the Kanata North Transitway.
  • Taking tolls off Highway 407 East, which runs between Brock Road in Pickering and Highway 115 in Clarington.
  • Legislation to ban use of congestion pricing on all provincial and municipal roadways.[82]
  • Upload the Ottawa LRT system to the provincial government.[83]
Tariff response
  • $10 billion in cash-flow support for Ontario employers.[84]
  • $3 billion in payroll tax and premium relief.
  • $120 million to support approximately 18,000 bars and restaurants.
  • $40 million for a new Trade-Impacted Communities Program.
  • $300 million to expand the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit.
  • $600 million for the Invest Ontario Fund.
  • Create a Premier’s Task Force on the Economy with business, labour and civil society.[85]
  • Invest in retraining opportunities in post-secondary and the skilled trades.
  • Removing the cap from the Risk Management Program.
  • Promote interprovincial cooperation and break down trade barriers.
  • Launch a Buy Ontario campaign to promote Ontario goods.
  • Direct Ontario government-funded agencies to procure locally.
  • Negotiate a joint federal-provincial income assistance program to support people whose livelihoods are impacted by tariffs.
  • Support Canada’s national tariff response.
  • Offer a bonus to nurses and doctors who return to Canada from the U.S.
  • Remove the hidden tax on home building and introduce phased-in rent control.
  • Cut the small business tax rate in half, 3.2% to 1.6%, and increase the eligible income threshold.
  • End the Starlink contract with the provincial government.[86]
  • Immediately create a ‘tariff taskforce’ that works across party, jurisdictional and sectoral lines to defend Ontario workers, jobs and companies in trade negotiations.
  • Create an investment tax credit.
  • Create a Protect Ontario Fund for businesses disproportionately impacted by tariffs.[87]

Party slogans

[edit]
Party English French (translation)
█ PC "Protect Ontario" Unofficial: "Protéger l'Ontario"[88]
█ New Democratic "On Your Side" "À vos côtés"[88]
█ Liberal "More For You"[89] "Plus Pour Vous"
█ Green "People Before Profits"[90]

Endorsements

[edit]
Endorsements received by each party
Type PC NDP Liberal Green
Media
Politicians and public figures
Unions and business associations

Debates

[edit]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
Liaison Strategies February 23, 2025 [p 1] 42 18 32 5 3 ±3.45% 805 IVR 10
Mainstreet Research February 23, 2025 [p 2] 42 19 32 4 4 ±2.7% 1335 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 10
Mainstreet Research February 22, 2025 [p 3] 43 17 30 5 4 ±2.8% 1238 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 13
Nanos Research February 22, 2025 [p 4] 44 20 29 5 3 ±3.3% 920 telephone (rolling)/online 15
Mainstreet Research February 21, 2025 [p 5] 42 17 31 6 4 ±2.8% 1245 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 11
Nanos Research February 21, 2025 [p 6] 43 19 31 6 2 ±3.3% 918 telephone (rolling)/online 12
Ipsos February 20, 2025 [p 7] 46 21 25 4 4 ± 4.2% 800 Online 21
Relay Strategies February 20, 2025 [p 8] 47 18 26 8 — ±3% 975 (1/3) Online 21
Nanos Research February 20, 2025 [p 9] 45 17 31 5 2 ±3.2% 931 telephone (rolling)/online 14
Mainstreet Research February 20, 2025 [p 10] 40 19 29 7 5 ±2.8% 1243 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 11
Nanos Research February 19, 2025 [p 11] 44 17 31 7 2 ±3.2% 936 telephone (rolling)/online 13
Mainstreet Research February 19, 2025 [p 12] 38 21 29 6 6 ±2.7% 1291 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 9
Relay Strategies February 18, 2025 [p 13] 47 17 27 9 — ±4% 822 (1/3) Online 20
Nanos Research February 18, 2025 [p 14] 46 16 30 7 2 ±3.2% 929 telephone (rolling)/online 16
Mainstreet Research February 18, 2025 [p 15] 39 21 28 5 6 ±2.7% 1281 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 11
Leger February 17, 2025 [p 16] 48 16 28 5 3 ±3.09% 1,002 Online 20
Mainstreet Research February 17, 2025 [p 17] 41 18 30 5 6 ±2.7% 1278 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 11
Probe Research February 16, 2025 [p 18] 47 17 27 8 1 2.8% 1200 Online 20
Innovative Research February 16, 2025 [p 19] 45 18 28 7 2 4% 963 Online 17
Relay Strategies February 16, 2025 [p 20] 47 20 26 8 — ±4% 704 (1/3) Online 21
Nanos Research February 16, 2025 [p 21] 46 18 27 7 2 ±3.3% 912 telephone (rolling)/online 19
Mainstreet Research February 16, 2025 [p 22] 41 18 31 6 5 ±2.8% 1229 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 10
Abacus Data February 15, 2025 [p 23] 41 21 28 6 3 ±2.8% 1,500 Online 13
Nanos Research February 15, 2025 [p 24] 45 18 30 5 2 ±3.3% 915 telephone (rolling)/online 15
Mainstreet Research February 15, 2025 [p 25] 43 17 30 6 3 ±2.8% 1228 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 13
Mainstreet Research February 14, 2025 [p 26] 43 19 29 6 3 2.7% 1272 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 14
Nanos Research February 13, 2025 [p 27] 44 17 31 6 2 ±3.2% 900 telephone (rolling)/online 13
Mainstreet Research February 13, 2025 [p 28] 44 17 29 6 4 ±2.7% 1294 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 15
Research Co. February 13, 2025 [p 29] 45 15 31 4 4 ±3.9% 702 online 14
Pallas Data February 12, 2025 [p 30] 44.1 18.9 27.7 4.7 4.6 ±2.1% 2,193 IVR 16.4
Nanos Research February 12, 2025 [p 31] 45 17 29 6 2 ±3.2% 938 telephone (rolling)/online 16
Mainstreet Research February 12, 2025 [p 32] 42 17 31 6 4 ±2.7% 1314 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 11
Relay Strategies February 11, 2025 [p 33] 49 19 24 9 — ±4% 656 (1/3) Online 25
Mainstreet Research February 11, 2025 [p 34] 41 16 32 7 4 ±2.7% 1,301 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 9
Relay Strategies February 10, 2025 [p 35] 50 19 22 9 — ±4% 656 (1/3) Online 28
Mainstreet Research February 10, 2025 [p 36] 40 19 30 6 4 ±2.7% 1,303 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 10
Nanos Research February 10, 2025 [p 37] 44 17 32 5 2 ±3.2% 920 telephone (rolling)/online 12
Relay Strategies February 9, 2025 [p 38] 51 18 23 8 — ±4% 656 (1/3) Online 28
Leger February 9, 2025 [p 39] 47 17 26 6 4[a] ±3.09% 1,004 Online 21
Liaison Strategies February 9, 2025 [p 40] 41 18 31 6 4 ±2.82% 1,201 IVR 10
Nanos Research February 9, 2025 [p 41] 44 19 31 4 2 ±3.2% 920 telephone (rolling)/online 13
Mainstreet Research February 9, 2025 [p 42] 44 18 26 7 4 ±2.7% 1,347 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 18
Nanos Research February 8, 2025 [p 43] 44 20 28 5 3 ±3.3% 913 telephone (rolling)/online 16
Mainstreet Research February 8, 2025 [p 44] 41 21 25 7 5 ±2.8% 1,187 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 16
Mainstreet Research February 7, 2025 [p 45] 39 20 28 7 5 ±2.5% 1,262 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 11
Abacus Data February 6, 2025 [p 46] 46 21 24 5 4 ±3.1% 2,000 Online 22
Mainstreet Research February 6, 2025 [p 47] 39 22 29 5 6 ±2.5% 1,236 (1/4) Smart IVR (rolling) 10
Nanos Research February 6, 2025 [p 48] 46 16 30 7 2 ±3.3% 904 telephone (rolling)/online 16
Mainstreet Research February 5, 2025 [p 49] 42 19 29 5 5 ±2.8% 1,236 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 13
Mainstreet Research February 4, 2025 [p 50] 45 16 29 5 5 ±2.9% 1,162 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 16
Mainstreet Research February 3, 2025 [p 51] 44 15 30 5 7 ±3.0% 1,080 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 14
Angus Reid February 3, 2025 [p 52] 43 21 26 5 5 ±2% 1,760 Online 17
Pallas Data February 2, 2025 [p 53] 45 21 28 5 2 ±3.1% 1,014 IVR 17
Mainstreet Research February 2, 2025 [p 54] 43 17 29 5 6 — 1,374 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 14
Leger February 2, 2025 [p 55] 47 17 23 8 4[b] ±3.09% 1,004 Online 24
Mainstreet Research February 1, 2025 [p 56] 42 17 29 6 5 — 1,124 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 13
Liaison Strategies February 1, 2025 [p 57] 43 16 31 5 5 ±2.74% 1,274 IVR 12
Mainstreet Research January 31, 2025 [p 58] 43 19 29 5 4 — 1,247 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 14
Innovative Research January 31, 2025 [p 59] 49 19 22 9 1 — 857 Online 27
Mainstreet Research January 30, 2025 [p 60] 38 20 30 6 5 ±2.4% 1,644 (1/3) Smart IVR (rolling) 8
Ipsos January 30, 2025 [p 61] 50 20 24 3 3 ± 4.2% 800 Online 26
Mainstreet Research January 29, 2025 [p 62] 38 22 29 5 6 — 1,460 Smart IVR 9
January 29, 2025 Election campaign begins
Innovative Research January 27, 2025 [p 63] 51 18 23 6 2 — 1,286 Online 28
Mainstreet Research January 26, 2025 [p 64] 36 23 29 6 6 ±3.2% 936 Smart IVR 7
Abacus Data January 26, 2025 [p 65] 47 19 24 7 3 ±3.1% 1,021 Online 23
Campaign Research January 26, 2025 [p 66] 47 18 23 7 5 — 1,611 Online 24
Liaison Strategies January 23, 2025 [p 67] 39 18 33 5 5 ±2.71% 1,307 IVR 6
Yorkville Strategies January 23, 2025 [p 68] 48 15 25 7 5 ±4.0% 600 Online 23
Leger January 19, 2025 [p 69] 46 19 22 7 6 ±3.08% 1,007 Online 24
Liaison Strategies January 16, 2025 [p 70] 41 19 32 5 4 ±2.83% 1,197 IVR 9
Campaign Research January 15, 2025 [p 71] 47 19 23 7 4 — 1,789 Online 24
Mainstreet Research January 15, 2025 [p 72] 40 21 30 5 4 ±3.2% 943 Smart IVR 10
Liaison Strategies January 9, 2025 [p 73] 40 21 30 4 5 ±2.82% 1,202 IVR 10
Abacus Data December 4, 2024 [p 74] 43 21 25 6 5 ±2.6% 1,500 Online 18
Mainstreet Research December 2, 2024 [p 75] 42 22 27 6 3 ±3.6% 742 Smart IVR 15
Abacus Data November 5, 2024 [p 76] 42 22 26 7 4 ±3.1% 998 Online 16
Pallas Data October 15, 2024 [p 77] 41.5 21.6 27.7 7.1 2.1 ±3.1% 996 IVR 13.8
Abacus Data October 10, 2024 [p 78] 44 22 24 7 4 ±3.1% 997 Online 20
Angus Reid September 18, 2024 [p 79] 40 25 23 7 4 ±3.0% 858 Online 15
Mainstreet Research September 17, 2024 [p 80] 41 18 30 5 6 ±3.5% 764 Smart IVR 11
Abacus Data August 17, 2024 [p 81] 42 21 26 8 4 ±3.057% 1,028 Online 16
Liaison Strategies August 20, 2024 [p 82] 40 21 27 6 6 ±2.71% 1,300 IVR 13
Abacus Data July 21, 2024 [p 83] 44 19 26 7 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 18
Liaison Strategies June 27, 2024 [p 84] 39 21 28 7 5 ±2.77% 1,245 IVR 11
Abacus Data June 25, 2024 [p 85] 41 22 25 8 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 16
Pallas Data June 4, 2024 [p 86] 39.4 22.6 26.5 8.3 3.2 ±2.9% 1,136 IVR 12.9
Abacus Data May 15, 2024 [p 87] 39 22 26 9 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 13
Abacus Data April 16, 2024 [p 88] 41 21 25 7 5 ±3.1% 995 Online 16
Liaison Strategies April 7, 2024 [p 89] 40 18 30 5 6 ±2.74% 1,280 IVR 10
Abacus Data March 21, 2024 [p 90] 41 21 27 7 5 ±2.5% 1,500 Online 14
Liaison Strategies March 9, 2024 [p 91] 39 21 29 5 6 ±2.74% 1,283 IVR 10
Angus Reid March 6, 2024 [p 92] 37 25 27 6 4 ±3.0% 777 Online 10
Abacus Data February 21, 2024 [p 93] 41 19 27 8 5 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 14
Pallas Data February 11, 2024 [p 94] 34.5 21.6 31.6 7.3 5.0 ±2.9% 1,121 IVR 2.9
Liaison Strategies February 3, 2024 [p 95][p 96] 38 22 30 5 5 ±2.8% 1,236 IVR 8
Abacus Data January 23, 2024 [p 97] 38 23 27 5 6 ±3.1% 995 Online 11
Abacus Data December 12, 2023 [p 98] 39 24 27 6 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 12
Mainstreet Research December 4, 2023 [p 99] 36 19 34 6 5 ±3.3% 872 Smart IVR 2
December 2, 2023 Bonnie Crombie is elected leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Abacus Data November 28, 2023 [p 100] 42 24 23 7 4 ±2.6% 1,500 Online 18
Innovative Research October 30, 2023 [p 101] 41 26 25 7 2 — 925 Online 15
Abacus Data October 15, 2023 [p 102] 40 24 24 7 5 ±3.7% 700 Online 16
Pallas Data September 27, 2023 [p 103][p 104] 33.4 27.4 26.7 6.7 5.8 ±3.2% 964 IVR 6
Angus Reid September 6, 2023 [p 105] 38 28 22 7 5 — 656 Online 10
Abacus Data September 4, 2023 [p 106] 34 26 28 7 5 ±2.2% 2,003 Online 6
Pallas Data August 29, 2023 [p 107] 37.3 25.8 26.9 5.2 4.9 ±3.2% 940 IVR 10.4
Abacus Data August 23, 2023 [p 108] 38 24 25 7 6 ±3.1% 1,040 Online 13
Abacus Data July 25, 2023 [p 109] 41 23 24 7 5 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 17
Mainstreet Research June 30, 2023 [p 110][p 111] 34.7 24.7 25.0 10.7 4.9 ±3.1% 993 Smart IVR 9.7
Abacus Data June 11, 2023 [p 112][p 113] 36 26 27 6 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 9
Counsel Public Affairs June 8, 2023 [p 114] 39 23 27 7 4 — 1,323 Online 12
Angus Reid June 3, 2023 [p 115] 36 27 25 6 6 — 653 Online 9
Angus Reid March 13, 2023 [p 116] 38 30 20 6 6 ±3% 861 Online 8
Abacus Data March 4, 2023 [p 117] 41 22 28 5 4[c] ±3.1% 1,000 Online 13
Mainstreet Research February 4, 2023 [p 118] 36.8 19.4 23.3 11.2 9.4 ±2.9% 1,166 Smart IVR 13.5
February 4, 2023 Marit Stiles is declared leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party
Angus Reid December 3, 2022 [p 119] 37 27 25 6 5 ±3% 1,058 Online 10
Mainstreet Research December 2, 2022 [p 120] 37.3 25.9 24.4 6.6 5.8 ±2.9% 1,162 Smart IVR 11.4
Abacus Data November 5, 2022 [p 121] 38 26 27 5 5[d] ±3.1% 1,000 Online 11
August 3, 2022 Steven Del Duca resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party; John Fraser becomes interim leader
June 28, 2022 Andrea Horwath resigns as leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party; Peter Tabuns becomes interim leader
EKOS June 20, 2022 [p 122][p 123] 37.5 23.3 19.2 9.8 10.2[e] ±2.7% 1,357 Online/Telephone 14.2
2022 election June 2, 2022 — 40.82 23.74 23.85 5.96 5.62 — — — 16.97

Footnotes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Previously elected as Progressive Conservative

References

[edit]
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  1. ^ Includes 2% for the New Blue Party.
  2. ^ Includes 2% for the New Blue Party.
  3. ^ Includes 2% for the New Blue Party.
  4. ^ Includes 3% for the New Blue Party.
  5. ^ Includes 5.2% for the New Blue Party.

Opinion poll sources

[edit]
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  29. ^ "Progressive Conservatives Way Ahead of Rivals in Ontario". February 14, 2025. Retrieved February 14, 2025.
  30. ^ "POLL: Toronto vs the world: How the central city and the burbs differ on provincial campaign issues". Toronto Today. February 14, 2025. Retrieved February 14, 2025.
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