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2022 Chilean constitutional referendum

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2022 Chilean constitutional referendum
4 September 2022
Do you approve the text of the New Constitution proposed by the Constitutional Convention?
Results
Choice
 Votes %
Approve 4,860,266 38.13%
Reject 7,886,434 61.87%
Valid votes 12,746,700 97.86%
Invalid or blank votes 278,092 2.14%
Total votes 13,024,792 100.00%
Registered voters/turnout 15,173,929 85.84%
Results by commune
Politics of Chile
Executive
National Congress
Judiciary
Law
Administrative divisions
Recent elections
Independent institutions
Foreign relations
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A constitutional referendum was held in Chile on 4 September 2022,[1] in order to determine whether the public agreed with the text of a new Political Constitution of the Republic drawn up by the Constitutional Convention. It was commonly referred to as the "exit plebiscite" (plebiscito de salida).[2][3]

The proposed constitution, which had faced "intense criticism that it was too long, too left-wing and too radical",[4] was rejected by a margin of 62% to 38%.[5][6]

Date

[edit]
The election at the National Stadium in Santiago.
'Rechazo' campaign, 1 September 2022.

According to the itinerary originally proposed for the constituent process, it was estimated that the plebiscite to approve or reject the text of the new Constitution would take place in September 2021, if the Constitutional Convention met its term of nine months and did not request the three-month extension, or in March 2022, if it requested such an extension.[7] In addition, the exit plebiscite could not be held 60 days before or after another election, nor could it be held in January or February, which would have placed it on the first Sunday in March if an extension were requested.[8][9]

As a result of the postponement of the first plebiscite to 25 October 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the date of the exit plebiscite was also modified. It was projected to take place during the third quarter of 2022, in September at the latest.[10] In April 2022, it was announced that the referendum would be held on 4 September.[1]

Format

[edit]

Article 142 of the 1980 Political Constitution of the Republic of Chile indicates the text of the ballot in the plebiscite:[8]

In the aforementioned plebiscite, the citizens will have an electoral card that will contain the following question ... : "Do you approve the text of the New Constitution proposed by the Constitutional Convention?". Under the question posed there will be two horizontal stripes, one next to the other. The first one will have the expression "Approve" at the bottom and the second one, the word "Reject", so that the voter can mark his preference over one of the alternatives.

— Political Constitution of the Republic of Chile of 1980, article 142

There was no contingency plan in place as to what will happen if the new constitution is rejected. Chilean human rights lawyer Dinka Benítez stated that "given that 80 percent of those who voted in the plebiscite want a new constitution, it seems that Chile … will necessarily have to find a way to have a new constitution" in some form, and that a "reject" vote would not necessarily be a death knell for constitutional reform.[11]

Proposed new constitution

[edit]
Main article: 2022 Proposed Political Constitution of the Republic of Chile

Party positions

[edit]
Choice Parties Political orientation Leader Ref
checkY Approve Apruebo Dignidad (AD) Progressivism Gabriel Boric [12]
Democratic Revolution (RD) Democratic socialism Juan Ignacio Latorre
Social Convergence (CS) Libertarian socialism Alondra Arellano
Commons Socialism of the 21st century Marco Velarde
Communist Party of Chile (PCCh) Communism Guillermo Teillier
Social Green Regionalist Federation (FREVS) Regionalism Flavia Torrealba Diaz
Humanist Action (AH) Humanism Tomás Hirsch
Unir Movement (UNIR) Progressivism Marcelo Díaz
Democratic Socialism (SD) Social democracy
Socialist Party of Chile (PS) Social democracy Paulina Vodanovic
Party for Democracy (PPD) Progressivism Natalia Piergentili
Radical Party of Chile (PR) Social liberalism Leonardo Cubillos
Liberal Party of Chile (PL) Social liberalism Vlado Mirosevic
Christian Democratic Party (PDC) Christian democracy Felipe Delpin [13]
Humanist Party (PH) Universal humanism Natalia Ibáñez [14]
Green Ecologist Party (PEV) Green politics Félix González Gatica [15]
☒N Reject Chile Vamos (ChV) Liberal conservatism [16]
Independent Democratic Union (UDI) Conservatism Javier Macaya
National Renewal (RN) Conservatism Francisco Chahuán
Political Evolution (Evópoli) Classical liberalism Luz Poblete Coddou
Republican Party (PLR) National conservatism Rojo Edwards [17]
Party of the People (PDG) Populism Franco Parisi [18]

Opinion polls

[edit]

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading option's color. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the options in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

[edit]

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organizations.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

[edit]

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Results

[edit]
Results
ChoiceVotes%
For4,860,26638.13
Against7,886,43461.87
Total12,746,700100.00
Valid votes12,746,70097.86
Invalid votes200,8121.54
Blank votes77,2800.59
Total votes13,024,792100.00
Registered voters/turnout15,173,92985.84
Source: SERVEL

Analysis

[edit]
Celebrations for the triumph of the Rejection of a New Constitution in Chile, 4 September 2022.

Chileans' views on the new constitution changed throughout the process of the Constitutional Convention. When the Constitutional Convention started meeting in August 2021, participants in a national poll were asked if they believed that the new constitution resulting from the process would help solve Chile's problems, have no effect, or worsen the current situation, 49% said it would have a positive effect, and 15% said it would have a negative effect. By May 2022, 36% of Chileans said that they believed the new constitution would have a positive effect, a drop from the previous poll.[19] In a study carried out by the independent think tank Espacio Público-IPSOS in July 2022, 38% of respondents believed that the new constitution would bring about several negative changes for the country, while 23% believed it would bring positive changes.[20]

Doubts about the representativeness of the Constitutional Convention's members may have led to its rejection. Respondents to Espacio Público-IPSOS' survey felt the members of the Constitutional Convention were unrepresentative of Chileans as a whole; 59% of respondents said they did not believe the composition of the Constitutional Convention was a good representation of the diversity of Chilean society, and 63% of respondents said they did not feel represented by the Constitutional Convention.[20]

Chileans were also skeptical of particular elements of the new constitution. The indigenous justice system, the plurinational state, and the role of Congress created the most concern. The language of the new constitution declared, "Chile is a Plurinational and Intercultural State that recognizes the coexistence of diverse nations and peoples within the framework of the unity of the State."[21] Regarding an indigenous justice system, the new constitution also declared that "pre-existing indigenous peoples and nations, as well as their members, are entitled to the full exercise of their collective and individual rights by virtue of their self-determination."[21] These new elements generated fears about internal divisions and competing sources of justice to the generally centrist Chilean citizenry.[22][20] Participants believed that the new constitution would worsen the sale and consumption of drugs, unemployment, poverty and political corruption.[20][23]

According to NACLA, right-wing groups and conservative media in Chile led throughout the process a negative campaign that spread misinformation about the proposed constitution and the members drafting it.[24]

Aftermath

[edit]

Boric announced a new process for drafting a new constitution, with Al Jazeera writing, "Most Chileans and their politicians have agreed the constitution that dates from the dictatorship must change." Boric called on the heads of all political parties for a meeting on Monday, 5 September 2022, to chart a path forward.[25] As a result of the rejection, the incumbent 1980 Constitution will remain in force, with The Guardian writing that "Chile's future looks decidedly uncertain," and that, "Boric has expressed a willingness to repeat the constitutional process, but the basis for reform is still very much up for debate."[26] Colombian president Gustavo Petro lamented the win of the rejection vote, considering that Chile had decided to "revive Augusto Pinochet".[27]

The Economist considered that "common sense" had led Chileans to reject the proposed constitution, it also called the result a "blow" for the government of Gabriel Boric.[28]

In the aftermath of the plebiscite the internal division that the Christian Democratic Party's official support for the "Approve" option had created resurfaced, with various calls for a renewed leadership, and some calling for the explusion of members who had supported the "Reject" option.[29]

A Constitutional Council election was held on 7 May 2023, with right-wing parties gaining a majority. Its proposed new constitution was subsequently also rejected in another constitutional referendum held on 17 December 2023.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Encuesta Atlas Chile – Plebiscito de salida para una nueva constitución" (in Spanish). 3 September 2022. Archived from the original on 4 September 2022. Retrieved 3 September 2022.
  2. ^ a b "Chile: últimos sondeos reducen los votos a favor del rechazo al plebiscito". La República (in Spanish). 3 September 2022. Archived from the original on 3 September 2022. Retrieved 3 September 2022.
  3. ^ a b "Última encuesta UDD da ventaja de 10 puntos al Rechazo y Apruebo solo vence entre jóvenes de 18 a 30 años (Lea encuesta completa)". Ex-Ante (in Spanish). 20 August 2022. Archived from the original on 20 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  4. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Tercera Semana de Agosto" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). 21 August 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 31 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  5. ^ a b "Encuesta Atlas: Plebiscito de salida para una nueva constitución política" (PDF). AtlasIntel (in Spanish). 19 August 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 21 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  6. ^ a b "Plebiscito Constitucional – Septiembre 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). 19 August 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 31 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  7. ^ a b "Encuesta Semanal Signos" (PDF). Signos (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 5 September 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  8. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Segunda Semana de Agosto" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 15 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  9. ^ a b "Plebiscito Constitucional – Septiembre 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 15 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  10. ^ a b "Encuesta Signos: distancia entre el Rechazo y el Apruebo llega a 5,7 puntos". Desenfoque (in Spanish). 12 August 2022. Archived from the original on 12 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  11. ^ a b "Encuesta Data Influye: Opción del Apruebo se ubica en el 47% y el Rechazo se impone con 53%". MegaNoticias (in Spanish). 10 August 2022. Archived from the original on 10 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  12. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Primera Semana de Agosto" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 8 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  13. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano – Agosto 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  14. ^ a b "Encuesta Signos: distancia entre el Rechazo y el Apruebo se reduce a sólo 7,7 puntos a un mes del plebiscito". Desenfoque (in Spanish). 5 August 2022. Archived from the original on 5 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  15. ^ a b "Barómetro del Trabajo (5 de Agosto 2022)". FIEL (in Spanish). 5 August 2022. Archived from the original on 9 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  16. ^ a b "Agenda Criteria – Julio 2022" (PDF). Criteria (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  17. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Cuarta Semana de Julio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  18. ^ a b "Encuesta semanal Signos: Ventaja del "Rechazo" sobre el "Apruebo" se estrecha a poco más de 10 puntos". Desenfoque (in Spanish). 29 July 2022. Archived from the original on 31 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  19. ^ a b "Encuesta Criteria: Rechazo aventaja por 8 puntos al Apruebo (y los distintos escenarios según los grupos que salgan a votar)". Ex-Ante (in Spanish). 28 July 2022. Archived from the original on 1 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  20. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Tercera Semana de Julio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  21. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano – Julio 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 August 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  22. ^ a b "Encuesta UDD". UDD (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 24 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  23. ^ a b "Encuesta semanal Signos: el apruebo recupera terreno y brecha con el rechazo se acorta a 12,5 puntos". AdPrensa (in Spanish). 23 July 2022. Archived from the original on 5 September 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  24. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Segunda Semana de Julio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  25. ^ a b "Encuesta Signos: las principales razones de la ciudadanía para aprobar o rechazar en el plebiscito". AdPrensa (in Spanish). 16 July 2022. Archived from the original on 5 September 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  26. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Primera Semana de Julio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  27. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano – Julio 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 10 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  28. ^ a b "Encuesta semanal Signos: "Rechazo" supera el 50% y amplía en 17.7 puntos su ventaja sobre el "Apruebo"". AdPrensa (in Spanish). 9 July 2022. Archived from the original on 11 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  29. ^ a b "Feedback: Rechazo supera por 18 puntos al Apruebo en medio de fuerte pesimismo económico (Lea encuesta completa)". Ex-Ante (in Spanish). 11 July 2022. Archived from the original on 12 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  30. ^ a b "FIN, Convención Constitucional, Plebiscito, Evaluación Gobierno, Economía, Tendencias". Data Influye (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 6 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  31. ^ a b "Agenda Criteria – Junio 2022" (PDF). Criteria (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 6 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  32. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Quinta Semana de Junio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  33. ^ a b "Brecha entre el Rechazo y el Apruebo se agranda y llega a su máxima diferencia". El Mercurio (in Spanish). 3 July 2022. Archived from the original on 3 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  34. ^ a b "Encuesta Signos: opción rechazo supera en 16 puntos al apruebo en antesala de campaña por plebiscito constitucional". AdPrensa (in Spanish). 1 July 2022. Archived from the original on 2 July 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  35. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Cuarta Semana de Junio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  36. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano – Junio 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 26 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  37. ^ a b "Informe de Prensa – El Plebiscito de Salida" (PDF). FIEL (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 29 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  38. ^ a b "Nueva Encuesta Signos arroja brecha de 15 puntos en favor del "rechazo" en plebiscito de nueva Constitución". AdPrensa (in Spanish). 25 June 2022. Archived from the original on 26 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  39. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Tercera Semana de Junio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  40. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Segunda Semana de Junio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  41. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano – Junio 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  42. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Primera Semana de Junio" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  43. ^ a b "Agenda Criteria – Mayo 2022" (PDF). Criteria (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 4 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  44. ^ a b "Encuesta CEP revela empate técnico entre el Apruebo y el Rechazo: 37% aún no decide su voto". Radio BíoBío (in Spanish). 9 June 2022. Archived from the original on 14 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  45. ^ a b "Convención Constitucional, Plebiscito, Araucanía, Gobierno, Economía e Inflación". Data Influye (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 1 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  46. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Cuarta Semana de Mayo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 30 May 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  47. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano – Mayo 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 6 June 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  48. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Tercera Semana de Mayo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 23 May 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  49. ^ a b "Parte III: La convención bajo presión". Datavoz (in Spanish). 31 May 2022. Archived from the original on 31 May 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  50. ^ a b "Encuesta Plaza Pública – Segunda Semana de Mayo" (PDF). Cadem (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 May 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  51. ^ a b "Pulso Ciudadano – Mayo 2022" (PDF). Activa (in Spanish). Archived (PDF) from the original on 16 May 2022. Retrieved 26 August 2022.
  52. ^ a b "Encuesta Black&White: crece rechazo a nueva Constitución y 63% está a favor de que sea redactada por grupo de expertos". Black&White (in Spanish). 12 May 2022. Archived from the original on 23 May 2022. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
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Other
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  2. ^ Armaza, Christian (26 October 2020). "Plebiscito de salida: la instancia donde se aprobará o rechazará la nueva Constitución". El Día (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 31 October 2020. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
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  4. ^ Schmidt, Samantha (5 September 2022). "Chilean voters decisively reject leftist constitution". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on 5 September 2022. Retrieved 5 September 2022.
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  11. ^ Harrison, Chase (20 May 2022). "A Look at What Is—and Isn't—in Chile's Constitutional Draft". AS/COA. Archived from the original on 19 June 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  12. ^ Latorre, Rocío (6 June 2022). "Primeros pasos de cara al Apruebo: oficialismo establece una "instancia de coordinación" para campaña". La Tercera. Archived from the original on 5 July 2022. Retrieved 24 August 2022.
  13. ^ "Democracia Cristiana irá por el Apruebo en plebiscito constitucional". T13. Archived from the original on 9 July 2022. Retrieved 24 August 2022.
  14. ^ "Instagram". Instagram. Archived from the original on 5 September 2022. Retrieved 24 August 2022.[unreliable source?][dead link]
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  16. ^ Meganoticias (4 June 2022). "Partidos de Chile Vamos hacen llamado a votar "Rechazo" en plebiscito de salida". meganoticias.cl (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 4 June 2022. Retrieved 24 August 2022.
  17. ^ Pérez, Graciela (17 May 2022). "Republicanos es el primer partido de oposición que rechaza borrador de la Convención: "Es una mala propuesta"". La Tercera. Archived from the original on 13 August 2022. Retrieved 24 August 2022.
  18. ^ ADN. "Partido de la Gente irá por el Rechazo en el plebiscito de nueva Constitución". ADN (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 16 July 2022. Retrieved 24 August 2022.
  19. ^ Nolte, Detlef (2022). Chile's Constitutional Reform Process Rebooted. GIGA Focus Lateinamerika. Vol. 4. Hamburg: German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) - Leibniz-Institut für Globale und Regionale Studien, Institut für Lateinamerika-Studien. doi:10.57671/gfla-22042.
  20. ^ a b c d "¿Cómo vemos el proceso constituyente?: Miradas a un momento histórico" (PDF). July 2022.
  21. ^ a b Tricot, Tokichen (2 April 2022). "Chile moving toward a plurinational State". Latinoamérica 21. Retrieved 29 November 2022.
  22. ^ Stuenkel, Oliver. "Chile's Rejection of the New Constitution Is a Sign of Democratic Maturity". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved 29 November 2022.
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  24. ^ "Far Right Holds Chile Hostage". NACLA. 23 May 2023. Retrieved 24 May 2023.
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  27. ^ Forbes Staff (5 September 2022). "'Revivió Pinochet': Petro tras la victoria del rechazo a la nueva constitución en Chile". Forbes Colombia. Archived from the original on 5 September 2022. Retrieved 5 September 2022.
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  29. ^ Muñoz, José; Saéz, Diego (10 October 2022). "Democracia Cristiana discute pasos a seguir para revertir crisis interna del partido". Radio Bío-Bío (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 October 2022.
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