2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Arizona was considered a crucial swing state in 2024.
The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump.[2] Formerly a moderately red state in the American Southwest, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a major drop in margin of Republican victory in the traditional GOP stronghold compared to previous cycles, despite an overall more favorable year for Republicans than the previous two presidential elections. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population, the state is now considered a purple state.[3][4] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, but his petition was eventually withdrawn.[5][6]
Arizona was the final state to be called in the election, with Donald Trump winning by 5.5%, surpassing the margins predicted by most polls.[7] This was the largest margin of victory since 2012 for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the first time since 2012 that a presidential candidate won the state with an absolute majority of the vote. It was Trump's largest margin of victory in his sweep of the seven swing states, and Trump's strongest performance in a state won by Biden in 2020.
Background
[edit]Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden ran for re-election to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee.[8] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris (from neighboring California), who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[9]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.[10]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 375,110 | 89.3% | 72 | 72 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 15,844 | 3.8% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 11,611 | 2.8% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn) | 6,128 | 1.5% | |||
| Frankie Lozada (withdrawn) | 4,976 | 1.2% | |||
| Jason Palmer | 3,752 | 0.9% | |||
| Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) | 2,753 | 0.7% | |||
| Total: | 420,174 | 100.0% | 72 | 13 | 85 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.[10]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 492,299 | 78.84% | 43 | 43 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 110,966 | 17.77% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 10,131 | 1.62% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 5,078 | 0.81% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 2,479 | 0.40% | |||
| David Stuckenberg | 1,367 | 0.22% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 891 | 0.14% | |||
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 714 | 0.11% | |||
| John Anthony Castro | 505 | 0.08% | |||
| Total: | 624,430 | 100.00% | 43 | 43 | |
Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".[13][14]
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The following candidates have qualified and were on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona.[15]
- Kamala Harris — Democratic
- Donald Trump — Republican
- Chase Oliver — Libertarian
- Jill Stein — Green
- President R Boddie — Nonpartisan (Write-in)
- Dawanda Shelton — Independent (Write-in)
- Joel Skousen — Constitution Party (Write-in)
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[16] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[18] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[19] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis[20] | Tilt R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| The Economist[21] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| 538[22] | Lean R (flip) | November 4, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[23] | Tossup | November 3, 2024 |
| NBC News[24] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
Election rule changes
[edit]Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered.[25] In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.[26]
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin[27] | October 22 – November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 46.8% | 48.4% | 4.8% | Trump +1.6% |
| 538[28] | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 46.8% | 48.9% | 4.3% | Trump +2.1% |
| Silver Bulletin[29] | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 46.9% | 49.3% | 3.8% | Trump +2.4% |
| The Hill/DDHQ[30] | through November 4, 2024 | November 5, 2024 | 47.3% | 49.9% | 2.8% | Trump +2.6% |
| Average | 47.0% | 49.1% | 3.9% | Trump +2.1% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[31] | November 3–5, 2024 | 1,636 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| 49%[c] | 51% | – | ||||
| 1,468 (LV) | 47% | 49% | 4% | |||
| 49%[c] | 51% | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[32] | November 3–4, 2024 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 52% | 1% |
| Victory Insights[33] | November 2–3, 2024 | 750 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3%[d] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[34] | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 49% | 4%[e] |
| Patriot Polling[35] | November 1–3, 2024 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[36] | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | 5%[d] |
| AtlasIntel[37] | November 1–2, 2024 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 52% | 2% |
| Emerson College[38] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 50% | 2%[f] |
| 48%[c] | 51% | 1%[f] | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 1,025 (LV) | 45% | 49% | 6% | |||
| ActiVote[40] | October 8 – November 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[41][A] | October 30–31, 2024 | 750 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| AtlasIntel[42] | October 30–31, 2024 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[43] | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| YouGov[44][B] | October 25–31, 2024 | 880 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| 856 (LV) | 49% | 50% | 1% | |||
| Morning Consult[45] | October 21−30, 2024 | 666 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][C] | October 25–29, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6%[d] |
| AtlasIntel[47] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,458 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 51% | 2% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications[48] | October 28, 2024 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| RABA Research[49] | October 25–27, 2024 | 589 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | 12%[g] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[50] | October 24–26, 2024 | 1,094 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 48% | 6%[d] |
| CES/YouGov[51] | October 1–25, 2024 | 2,077 (A) | – | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 2,066 (LV) | 47% | 51% | 2% | |||
| Marist College[52] | October 17–22, 2024 | 1,329 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | 2%[h] |
| 1,193 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 50% | 1%[h] | ||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[53] | October 20–21, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3%[e] |
| HighGround[54] | October 19–20, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[55] | October 16–20, 2024 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 861 (LV) | 49% | 49% | 2% | |||
| University of Arizona/Truedot[56] | October 12–20, 2024 | 846 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 45% | 9%[i] |
| AtlasIntel[57] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,440 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| CBS News/YouGov[58] | October 11−16, 2024 | 1,435 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[45] | October 6−15, 2024 | 653 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Washington Post/Schar School[59] | September 30 – October 15, 2024 | 580 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| 580 (LV) | 46% | 49% | 5% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[60] | October 10–13, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 48% | 6%[j] |
| New York Times/Siena College[61] | October 7–10, 2024 | 808 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| 808 (LV) | 46% | 51% | 3% | |||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[62][D] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Emerson College[63] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4%[f] |
| 48%[c] | 51% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[64] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| ActiVote[65] | September 6 – October 8, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 51% | – |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[66][A] | October 5–7, 2024 | 735 (LV) | – | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| RMG Research[67][E] | September 30 – October 2, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 50% | 4%[k] |
| 46% | 50% | 4% | ||||
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[68][F] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[69][G] | September 24 – October 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 50% | 2%[e] |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[70] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 1%[e] |
| HighGround[71][H] | September 26–29, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| National Research[72][I] | September 25–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[73][J] | September 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Emerson College[74][K] | September 27–28, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 50% | 3%[f] |
| 48%[c] | 52% | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[75] | September 20–25, 2024 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] | September 19–25, 2024 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| 926 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| Fox News[78] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| 764 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 51% | 1% | ||
| Marist College[79] | September 19−24, 2024 | 1,416 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 50% | 2%[h] |
| 1,264 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 50% | 1%[h] | ||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[80][C] | September 19–22, 2024 | 1,030 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4%[d] |
| New York Times/Siena College[81] | September 17–21, 2024 | 713 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| 713 (LV) | 45% | 50% | 5% | |||
| Emerson College[82] | September 15–18, 2024 | 868 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 49% | 3%[l] |
| 49%[c] | 50% | 1%[l] | ||||
| Morning Consult[45] | September 9−18, 2024 | 862 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[83] | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 7%[j] |
| Data Orbital[84][L] | September 7–9, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Morning Consult[45] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 901 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| TIPP Insights[85][M] | September 3–5, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| 949 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| Patriot Polling[86] | September 1–3, 2024 | 804 (RV) | – | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[87] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| University of Arizona/Truedot[88] | August 28–31, 2024 | 1,155 (RV) | – | 42% | 46% | 12%[m] |
| Emerson College[89] | August 25–28, 2024 | 720 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 50% | 7% |
| 48%[c] | 51% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | August 23–26, 2024 | 776 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% | ||
| Fox News[91] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[92][N] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[93][O] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,187 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[94] | August 12–16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Focaldata[95] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 51% | – |
| Strategies 360[96] | August 7–14, 2024 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College[97] | August 8–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 7% |
| 677 (LV) | 50% | 45% | 5% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[98] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Navigator Research (D)[99] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[100] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| HighGround[101] | July 30 – August 5, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 42% | 14%[n] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[102][P] | July 29–30, 2024 | 618 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[103][Q] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[104] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Emerson College[105] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| 47%[c] | 53% | – | ||||
| Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[106] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 44% | 52% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] | May 7–13, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Emerson College[109] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| New York Times/Siena College[110] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| 603 (LV) | 43% | 48% | 9% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [o] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[111] | through October 10, 2024 | October 15, 2024 | 46.4% | 48.8% | 1.0% | — | 0.8% | 3.0% | Trump +2.4% |
| 270toWin[112] | October 2 – 12, 2024 | October 12, 2024 | 47.4% | 47.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 3.5% | Trump +0.2% |
| Average | 46.9% | 48.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.2% | Trump +1.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[31] | November 3–5, 2024 | 1,636 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 1% | – | 7% |
| 46%[c] | 50% | 2% | 2% | – | – | ||||
| 1,468 (LV) | 46% | 49% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% | |||
| 47%[c] | 50% | 2% | 1% | – | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[32] | November 3–4, 2024 | 875 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 51% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| AtlasIntel[37] | November 1–2, 2024 | 967 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 52% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| New York Times/Siena College[39] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,025 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 47% | – | 3% | 2% | 6% |
| 1,025 (LV) | 44% | 48% | – | 2% | 1% | 5% | |||
| Focaldata[113] | October 3 – November 1, 2024 | 1,779 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 1,603 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 49% | 47% | – | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| 1,779 (A) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 2% | 1% | 1% | ||
| AtlasIntel[42] | October 30–31, 2024 | 1,005 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 51% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] | October 28–31, 2024 | 652 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| YouGov[44][B] | October 25–31, 2024 | 880 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | 0% | 1% | – | 4% |
| 856 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 0% | 0% | – | 4% | |||
| Noble Predictive Insights[115] | October 28–30, 2024 | 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 0% | 3% |
| Data for Progress (D)[116] | October 25–30, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| AtlasIntel[47] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,458 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 51% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications[48] | October 28, 2024 | 610 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 50% | – | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Data Orbital[117] | October 26–28, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 50% | – | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[118] | October 25–27, 2024 | 901 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| J.L. Partners[119] | October 24–26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 49% | – | 0% | 1% | 2%[d] |
| CNN/SSRS[120] | October 21–26, 2024 | 781 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121] | October 20–22, 2024 | 710 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[55] | October 16–20, 2024 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 861 (LV) | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] | October 16–18, 2024 | 691 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[57] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,440 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[123] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,141 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[61] | October 7–10, 2024 | 808 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| 808 (LV) | 45% | 50% | – | 1% | 0% | 4% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 555 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[69][R] | September 24 – October 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[75] | September 20–25, 2024 | 946 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | – | 0% | – | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 50% | 47% | – | 1% | – | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] | September 19–25, 2024 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 926 (LV) | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% | |||
| Fox News[78] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 2% | − |
| 764 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 50% | 0% | 1% | 2% | − | ||
| Suffolk University/USA Today[125] | September 19−24, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| New York Times/Siena College[81] | September 17–21, 2024 | 713 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 47% | – | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| 713 (LV) | 43% | 48% | – | 2% | 2% | 5% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[126] | September 16–19, 2024 | 789 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] | September 6–9, 2024 | 765 (LV) | – | 46% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| TIPP Insights[85][M] | September 3–5, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 46% | 1% | 1% | – | 6% |
| 949 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | |||
| YouGov[128][B] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 47% | 1% | 1% | – | 6%[d] |
| CNN/SSRS[129] | August 23–29, 2024 | 682 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 49% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[130] | August 25–28, 2024 | 530 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | August 23–26, 2024 | 776 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% | ||
| Fox News[91] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,014 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal[64] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[73][J] | September 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||||||
| Spry Strategies (R)[92] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 2% | – | 1% | – | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[93][O] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,187 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 7% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Focaldata[95] | August 6–16, 2024 | 702 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 46% | 7% | – | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| 702 (RV) | 45% | 45% | 9% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% | |||
| 702 (A) | 42% | 46% | 9% | – | 0% | 0% | 3% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[131] | August 12–15, 2024 | 592 (LV) | – | 43% | 44% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[97] | August 8–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 42% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| 677 (LV) | 47% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 4% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[99] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[100] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 435 (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 4% | |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[132] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 567 (LV) | – | 44% | 43% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[104] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | 5% | – | 0% | 2% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[133] | July 22–24, 2024 | 510 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | 4% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Emerson College[105] | July 22–23, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 48% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[134][S] | July 17–20, 2024 | 738 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | |||||||
| Peak Insights (R)[135][T] | July 31 – August 5, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 11% | 3% |
| Iron Light Intelligence (R)[136][U] | July 29 – August 5, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 43% | 43% | 7% | 7% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[134][S] | July 17–20, 2024 | 738 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[106] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Emerson College[137][V] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[138][W] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 50% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights[139][X] | July 1–8, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[140] | July 1–5, 2024 | 781 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College[141][V] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[142] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 638 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[143][M] | June 17–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Emerson College[144] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| 48%[c] | 52% | – | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[145] | June 11–13, 2024 | 750 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Fox News[146] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,095 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 51% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[147][Y] | May 28 – June 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[148] | May 19–21, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| 501 (LV) | 45% | 43% | 12% | |||
| CBS News/YouGov[149] | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,214 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 52% | 1% |
| Prime Group[150][Z] | May 9–16, 2024 | 490 (RV) | – | 49% | 51% | – |
| Noble Predictive Insights[151] | May 7–14, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] | May 7–13, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[152] | May 6–13, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[153] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 626 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| 626 (LV) | 43% | 49% | 8% | |||
| Emerson College[154] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 48%[c] | 52% | – | ||||
| Kaplan Strategies[155] | April 20–21, 2024 | 874 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| John Zogby Strategies[156][AA] | April 13–21, 2024 | 630 (LV) | – | 40% | 51% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[157] | April 8–15, 2024 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[158][D] | April 7–11, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| The Bullfinch Group[159][AB] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 18%[p] |
| RABA Research[160] | March 28–31, 2024 | 503 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | 39% | 25%[q] |
| Wall Street Journal[161] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[162][AC] | March 12–19, 2024 | 401 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[163][U] | March 14–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College[164] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 48%[c] | 52% | – | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[165] | March 8–14, 2024 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Fox News[166] | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,121 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[167] | February 21–26, 2024 | 1,001 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] | February 12–20, 2024 | 798 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Emerson College[109] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| J.L. Partners[169] | January 29 – February 1, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Focaldata[170] | January 17–23, 2024 | 783 (A) | – | 39% | 43% | 18%[r] |
| – (LV) | 41% | 45% | 14%[s] | |||
| – (LV) | 50%[c] | 50% | – | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[171] | January 16–21, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| The Bullfinch Group[172] | December 14–18, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| VCreek/AMG (R)[173][AD] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[174] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| J.L. Partners[175][AE] | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Tulchin Research (D)[176][AF] | November 13–20, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[177] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College[178] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| New York Times/Siena College[110] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| 603 (LV) | 44% | 49% | 7% | |||
| Noble Predictive Insights[179] | October 25–31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 46% | 16% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[180] | October 5–10, 2023 | 804 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[181] | October 7–9, 2023 | 627 (RV) | – | 39% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College[182] | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 45% | 13% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[183][AG] | July 22–24, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 8% |
| Prime Group[184][Z] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 48% | 52% | – |
| 31% | 41% | 28%[t] | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[185][AG] | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 41% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[186][AG] | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[187][AG] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[188][AH] | March 13–14, 2023 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 50% | 11% |
| OH Predictive Insights[189] | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[190] | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 35% | 38% | 27% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[191] | November 8–9, 2022 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Targoz Market Research[192] | November 2–6, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
| Emerson College[193] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College[194] | September 6–7, 2022 | 627 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Echelon Insights[195][X] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[196] | May 12–16, 2022 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[197][D] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Bendixen/Amandi International[198] | June 17–23, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | 5% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[134][S] | July 17–20, 2024 | 738 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 45% | 7% | – | 2% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[199] | July 16–18, 2024 | 456 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 7% | – | 1% | 8%[u] |
| Emerson College[137][V] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 46% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 10%[u] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[138][W] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 46% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| YouGov[200][B] | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 37% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| J.L. Partners[201] | July 10–11, 2024 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 46% | 4% | – | 2% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[202] | July 8–10, 2024 | 419 (LV) | – | 39% | 43% | 7% | – | 1% | 10%[v] |
| Echelon Insights[139][X] | July 1–8, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 41% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 8%[u] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[140] | July 1–5, 2024 | 781 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 45% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 7% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[143][M] | June 17–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 32% | 42% | 13% | – | 3% | 10%[w] |
| Emerson College[144] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[145] | June 11–13, 2024 | 750 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 41% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[203] | June 8–11, 2024 | 430 (LV) | – | 38% | 40% | 6% | – | 1% | 15%[v] |
| Fox News[146] | June 1–4, 2024 | 1,095 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 46% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[147][AI] | May 28 – June 4, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 45% | 11% | 0% | 3% | 4% |
| Prime Group[150][Z] | May 9–16, 2024 | 490 (RV) | – | 40% | 44% | 11% | 3% | 2% | – |
| Noble Predictive Insights[151] | May 7–14, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] | May 7–13, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[152] | May 6–13, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 37% | 41% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[153] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 626 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 42% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 13% |
| 626 (LV) | 35% | 44% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 11% | |||
| Emerson College[154] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[157] | April 8–15, 2024 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 5% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[158][D] | April 7–11, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 37% | 42% | 10% | – | 2% | 9% |
| Wall Street Journal[161] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 39% | 13% | 2% | 1% | 11%[x] |
| Emerson College[164] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 46% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[165] | March 8–14, 2024 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| Fox News[166] | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,121 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] | February 12–20, 2024 | 798 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Emerson College[109] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[204] | January 16–21, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| VCreek/AMG (R)[173][AD] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (RV) | – | 32% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 14%[y] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[205] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 796 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 11% |
| J.L. Partners[175][AE] | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 12%[z] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| 1983 Labs[206] | June 28–30, 2024 | 492 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 33% | 48% | 8% | 11%[aa] |
| P2 Insights[207][AJ] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 36% | 47% | 7% | 10% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[148] | May 19–21, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 39% | 9% | 15% |
| 501 (LV) | 39% | 43% | 7% | 11% | |||
| P2 Insights[208][AJ] | May 13–21, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 9% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[209] | May 2–4, 2024 | 625 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | 7% | 7%[ab] |
| Data Orbital[210] | April 27–29, 2024 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 38.8% | 38.1% | 13.5% | 9.6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[211] | March 14–17, 2024 | 516 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[212] | December 28–30, 2023 | 808 (LV) | – | 35% | 41% | 10% | 14% |
| VCreek/AMG (R)[173][AD] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (RV) | – | 35% | 40% | 16% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[213] | November 27–29, 2023 | 1,103 (LV) | – | 33% | 40% | 10% | 17% |
| New York Times/Siena College[214] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 33% | 33% | 26% | 8% |
| 603 (LV) | 34% | 34% | 24% | 8% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[181] | October 7–9, 2023 | 627 (LV) | – | 37% | 42% | 8% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||
| North Star Opinion Research[163][U] | March 14–17, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 37% | 18% | 2% | 10% |
| J.L. Partners[175][AE] | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 34% | 39% | 4% | 1% | 22% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[215] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 40% | 11% | 1% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||
| Emerson College[182] | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 42% | 4% | 13% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[156][AA] | April 13–21, 2024 | 630 (LV) | – | 34% | 52% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[156][AA] | April 13–21, 2024 | 630 (LV) | – | 39% | 46% | 15% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 44% | 51% | 5% |
| Emerson College[109] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 47% | 19% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[107][P] | July 10–11, 2024 | 596 (RV) | – | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Mark Kelly Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[134][S] | July 17–20, 2024 | 738 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 5% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[213] | November 27–29, 2023 | 1,103 (LV) | – | 33% | 25% | 19% | 23%[ac] |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCreek/AMG (R)[173][AD] | December 1–8, 2023 | 694 (RV) | – | 30% | 37% | 33% |
| New York Times/Siena College[216] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| 603 (LV) | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[213] | November 27–29, 2023 | 1,103 (LV) | – | 34% | 27% | 17% | 22%[ad] |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[216] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| 603 (LV) | 42% | 46% | 12% | |||
| Noble Predictive Insights[179] | October 25 – 31, 2023 | 1,010 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 40% | 23% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[183][AG] | July 22–24, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 46% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[185][AG] | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 46% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[186][AG] | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[187][AG] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| OH Predictive Insights[189] | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 36% | 29% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[190] | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| Echelon Insights[195][X] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 773 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[186][AG] | May 15–17, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,770,242 | 52.22% |  3.16%
| ||
| Democratic | 1,582,860 | 46.69% | 2.67%
| ||
| Green | 18,319 | 0.54% | 0.49%
| ||
| Libertarian | 17,898 | 0.53% | 0.99%
| ||
| Socialism and Liberation | Claudia De la Cruz (write-in) Karina Garcia (write-in) |
689 | 0.02% | 0.01%
| |
| Independent | Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in) Crystal Ellis (write-in) |
77 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Joel Skousen[ae] (write-in) Rik Combs (write-in) |
53 | 0.00% | 
| |
| Independent | DaWanda Shelton (write-in) Carrie Ann Serra (write-in) |
19 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Independent | President R. Boddie (write-in) Eric Stoneham (write-in) |
4 | 0.00% |
| |
| Total votes | 3,390,161 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
[edit]
| County[218] | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Apache | 12,795 | 39.86% | 18,872 | 58.79% | 434 | 1.35% | -6,077 | -18.93% | 32,101 |
| Cochise | 35,936 | 60.77% | 22,296 | 37.70% | 903 | 1.53% | 13,640 | 23.07% | 59,135 |
| Coconino | 27,576 | 39.18% | 41,504 | 58.98% | 1,294 | 1.84% | -13,928 | -19.80% | 70,374 |
| Gila | 18,901 | 68.24% | 8,504 | 30.70% | 293 | 1.06% | 10,397 | 37.54% | 27,698 |
| Graham | 11,177 | 73.46% | 3,867 | 25.42% | 171 | 1.12% | 7,310 | 48.04% | 15,215 |
| Greenlee | 2,308 | 69.60% | 954 | 28.77% | 54 | 1.63% | 1,354 | 40.83% | 3,316 |
| La Paz | 5,470 | 71.57% | 2,101 | 27.49% | 72 | 0.94% | 3,369 | 44.08% | 7,643 |
| Maricopa | 1,051,531 | 51.01% | 980,016 | 47.54% | 30,027 | 1.46% | 71,515 | 3.47% | 2,061,574 |
| Mohave | 85,683 | 77.41% | 24,081 | 21.75% | 929 | 0.84% | 61,602 | 55.66% | 110,693 |
| Navajo | 29,480 | 57.98% | 20,754 | 40.82% | 613 | 1.21% | 8,726 | 17.16% | 50,847 |
| Pima | 214,669 | 41.68% | 292,450 | 56.78% | 7,908 | 1.54% | -77,781 | -15.10% | 515,027 |
| Pinal | 126,926 | 60.39% | 80,656 | 38.38% | 2,591 | 1.23% | 46,270 | 22.01% | 210,173 |
| Santa Cruz | 7,699 | 40.17% | 11,265 | 58.77% | 203 | 1.06% | -3,566 | -18.60% | 19,167 |
| Yavapai | 99,346 | 66.48% | 48,717 | 32.60% | 1,365 | 0.91% | 50,629 | 33.88% | 149,428 |
| Yuma | 40,745 | 59.63% | 26,823 | 39.25% | 767 | 1.12% | 13,922 | 20.38% | 68,335 |
| Totals | 1,770,242 | 52.05% | 1,582,860 | 46.54% | 47,624 | 1.40% | 187,382 | 5.51% | 3,400,726 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 6 out of 9 congressional districts.[219][user-generated source]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative elected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47.7% | 50.9% | David Schweikert |
| 2nd | 42.0% | 56.9% | Eli Crane |
| 3rd | 68.9% | 29.3% | Ruben Gallego (118th Congress) |
| Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 52.3% | 45.8% | Greg Stanton |
| 5th | 39.3% | 59.2% | Andy Biggs |
| 6th | 48.9% | 49.7% | Juan Ciscomani |
| 7th | 60.3% | 38.2% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 8th | 41.2% | 57.5% | Debbie Lesko (118th Congress) |
| Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress) | |||
| 9th | 34.0% | 65.0% | Paul Gosar |
Analysis
[edit]Trump received more than 1.77 million votes, setting a new record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of statewide elections in Arizona. Trump reclaimed the largest county in the state, Maricopa, although it once again voted to the left of the state, a trend that started in 2016 and foreshadowed his 2020 loss of the state. Harris did not get over 60% of the vote in a single county.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Arizona
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
- 2024 Arizona elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b c d e f g "Other" with 2%
- ^ a b c d "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e f "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ a b c d "Another party's candidates" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ a b "Other" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
- ^ "Someone else" with 15%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 12%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 11%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%
- ^ Joe Manchin with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- ^ Jill Stein (G) with 2%
- ^ "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ The Constitution Party did not have ballot access in Arizona. Joel Skousen and Rik Combs registered as write-in candidates representing the party instead of the national ticket led by Randall Terry and Stephen Broden.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Democracy Defense Project and Echo Canyon Consulting
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- ^ Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b c d e f g h Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by NetChoice
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Independent Center
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Daily Mail
- ^ Poll sponsored by Stand for Children Arizona
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
- ^ Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
- ^ Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
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