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2025 Shabelle offensive

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2025 Shabelle offensive
Part of Somali Civil War (2009–present)

Al-Shabaab member waving an Al-Shabaab flag after capturing a military base in Boos-Hareri, March 6, 2025
DateFebruary 20, 2025 (2025-02-20) – present
Location
Middle Shabelle and parts of Hiran, Somalia[2]
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes
Belligerents
 Somalia
 Ethiopia
 United States[1]
Casualties and losses
~200 killed (Somali government claim)
240 killed (al-Shabaab claim)
Dozens injured
Several captured		 At least 280 killed

The 2025 Shabelle offensive is an ongoing major offensive in the Middle Shabelle and Hiran regions of Somalia by Al-Shabaab against towns, villages and outposts of the Somali National Army and allied militias,[3] as the group attempts to overturn landmark, US-backed Somali government gains from 2022.[4]

Attacks

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Initial attacks

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On February 20, 2025, Al-Shabaab militants attacked four villages in the Middle Shabelle region with vehicles laden with explosives, they captured two villages before the Somali National Army repelled the Al-Shabaab militants from two villages in heavy fighting including the village of Ali Ahmed, where at least seven Somali National Army members were killed, twenty Al-Shabaab militants, and one local clan fighter were killed.[5] Al-Shabaab militants used VBIED attacks, mortars, and attacked villages from all directions.[6] Unnamed commanders of Al-Shabaab were killed in the village of Ceel Cali Axmed.[7] Other villages like El Baraf were attacked, with fighting from pro-government Ma’awisley Abgal clan militia until they retreated and the village of El Baraf fell to Al-Shabaab with at least 93 pro-Government deaths.[8]

In total, 130 Al-Shabaab militants were killed and the villages of El-Ali, Daaru Nicma, Ali Fooldheere, and Al Kawthar were taken from Al-Shabaab after brief moments of capture.[9] Weapons, vehicles, and other military equipment were taken from Al-Shabaab militants after the confrontation though the exact amount of items were never specified.[10]

According to General Ibrahim Mumin, the commander of the 3rd division of the Somali National Army, Al-Shabaab failed at its attempt at capturing major villages the Middle Shabelle region.[11] Al-Shabaab has claimed they took over four military bases in the Middle Shabelle area and Ali Ahmed, Daru Nicma, Kevser and Ali Fol Dheer settlements.[12] Dozens of Mogadishu administration soldiers were killed and injured in the attacks with Al-Shabaab releasing images of the attacks through their media outlet, Al-Kataib Media Foundation, with some officers being recorded as captured by Al-Shabaab.[13]

Later attacks and offensive

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February

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On February 25, a joint military operation by the Somali government and local forces in Hirshabelle state, south-central Somalia, resulted in the deaths of over 70 Al-Shabaab members.[14][15] Many of the Al-Shabaab members were besieged and killed.[16] On the same day, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacks in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions of Somalia, seizing weapons and military vehicles. Militants launched a surprise attack on the Aboorey area in Hiiraan, targeting Macawisley militia members and claiming to have inflicted casualties and captured vehicles, though militia officials also reported inflicting losses on the attackers.[17] Simultaneously, Al-Shabaab assaulted multiple areas in Middle Shabelle, causing civilians to flee, and re-entered the El Ahmed and Al-Kowthar areas, establishing a continued presence. Rising fear is reported in Aadan Yabaal, formerly held by government forces and the Ma’awisley militia.[18] Through these attacks, Al-Shabaab took two villages including Ali Ahmed.[19]

On February 26, Al-Shabaab fighters attacked Balad district in the Middle Shabelle region early, entering the town from multiple directions and engaging Somali federal government forces in heavy fighting. While the extent of casualties remains unclear, government-run media reported that the attack was defeated.[20] Al-Shabaab militants attacked military bases in the Balad district.[21]

On February 27, mortar shells were fired from the Middle Shabelle area at Mogadishu ahead of a planned visit by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.[22] On the same day, fighting began in the town of Balad.[23]

On February 28, al-Shabaab militants captured Balad which is located 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) north of Mogadishu after storming a military base located near the town.[24][25] The militants temporarily seized control of key government buildings and infrastructure,[26] and also freed prisoners from the local prison before later withdrawing from the town.[4][27]

March

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On March 1, heavy clashes ensued between Somali forces and Al-Shabaab militants in Biyo Adde, a town in Middle Shabelle region, after Al-Shabaab launched an assault against government checkpoints,[28] with Al-Shabaab publishing images of its fighters occupying the town.[29]

On March 2, the Somali National Army completed an operation that killed around 40 Al-Shabaab members.[30][31]

On March 3, the United States assisted with airstrikes against al-Shabaab during this operation near the El Baraf area in the Middle Shabelle region during clashes in Biyaadde according to an AFRICOM report, with Hirshabelle Vice President Yusuf Ahmed Hagar Dabageed saying "the fight will continue and will not stop until al-Shabaab is defeated.".[32] On the same day, Al-Shabaab militants did coordinated attacks against Somali troops killing 60 Somali soldiers north of Mogadishu across several towns,[33] though al-Shabaab claims they killed 100.[34] These offensives have pushed closer to Mogadishu with these being the deadliest offensive by Al-Shabaab in several years.[35] On the same day as well, Somali government forces, backed by local clan militias known as Macwiisley, repelled an attack by Al-Shabaab militants in the Boos-Hareeri area of the Adan Yabal district.[36]

On March 4, al-Shabaab militants claimed to have captured the village of War Ciise, located 25km from the provincial capital Jowhar, without a fight after Somali government forces fled, publishing images of militants patrolling the village.[37]

On March 5, al-Shabaab militants continued their advance towards Mogadishu through the Middle Shabelle, after the capturing of Balcad they continued south to Mogadishu.[38] That same day the Ethiopian Air Force conducted multiple airstrikes on Al-Shabaab targets in the Middle Shabelle region,[39][40] marked Ethiopia’s first known aerial operation in Somalia in nearly two decades since its 2006 intervention against the Islamic Courts Union.[41] However, despite airstrikes al-Shabaab militants have largely retained their positions, with ground offensives by Somali forces and allied Ma'awisley militias yet to dislodge Al-Shabaab from its newly captured territories.[40]

On March 6, the federal government deployed reinforcements to Middle Shabelle region to intensify its military operations in the area against al-Shabaab.[42] Federal government officials also visit the town of Bal'ad to boost morale of federal troops.[43]

On March 7, al-Shabaab militants attacked and re-captured al-Kowthar in the Boos-Hareri area in the Aden Yabal district after battling Somali forces, killing several and injuring several, including Colonel Saney Abdulle.[44][45] Several military vehicles were captured from the Somali soldiers by al-Shabaab including one with a Zu-23 anti-aircraft gun attached to it.[46] The group also published images of its fighters in the town and the government militia base there.[47] Al-Shabaab fighters also launched attacks on the Boos-Hareri village itself,[48] with Harun Maruf reporting its re-capture.[49] On the same day, the Somali Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nuur confirmed Ethiopian airstrikes carried out against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle with coordination from the Federal Government of Somalia.[50] Former Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble stated that the Federal Government is currently facing a difficult situation and needs to cooperate with the opposition and the conservatives, otherwise the country will be taken over by Al-Shabaab. He also stated that apart from the Middle Shabelle region where heavy fighting is ongoing, there are fears that major battles will spread to other regions by Al-Shabaab.[51] The Somalian government also banned weapons and military vehicles from entering Aden Adde International Airport driven by security concerns raised by the Americans.[52][53]

On March 8, the Ethiopian Air Force continued its air strikes against al-Shabaab militants in the Middle Shabelle region in Somalia with cooperation from the Somali government.[54] The Ethiopian government also deployed a large number of Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) near the border town of Ferfer in preparation for upcoming military operations targeting Al-Shabaab militants in the Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions.[55] Near the Boos-Hareri region, Somali soldiers conducted a military operation killing 20 al-Shabaab militants.[56] Al-Shabab also overran the villages of Bursha Sheekh, Ceel Xarar, Laba Garas and Xaruur, located near the strategic town of Adale, approximately 70 kilometers northeast of Mogadishu.[41] Al-Shabaab also released images of their fighters in Balad during their temporary occupation of the town on February 28.[57] Somalian officials also confirmed the death of Yusuf Dhegnaas, a senior Al-Shabaab leader, in a targeted airstrike in the El Ba'ad area of the Middle Shabelle region on March 5.[58]

Reactions

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Due to the attacks, on March 4, 2025, the United Nations Security Council extended their sanctions against Al-Shabaab focusing on illegal arms exports and charcoal exports.[59] The sanctions are going to be in effect until December 13, 2025, with the renewal of a committee of experts that will monitor the sanctions on al-Shabaab until January 13, 2026.[60]

Because of Al-Shabaab's offensive, Puntland's Minister of Justice and Religious Affairs, Mohamed Abdiwahaab, accused the Federal Government of Somalia of not properly stopping attacks and not doing enough against Al-Shabaab.[61] Though, on March 5, 2025, Ahmed Mohamed Islam made a press release stating that they would fight alongside Somali government military forces and the Mawawisley clan militias in Jubaland against al-Shabaab.[62]

On March 5, 2025, former President of Somalia, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former Prime Minister, Hassan Ali Khaire, and member of the Somali parliament, Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame issued a joint press statement supporting the brave forces fighting against Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State.[63] Though they said that the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, had engaged in political conflict with some of the states of Somalia, which had stalled the operations against Al-Shabaab.[64]

After the offensive expanded, the United States Embassy in Somalia warned of the possibility of terrorist attacks including the Aden Adde International Airport in the capital, Mogadishu calling on American citizens in Somalia to exercise caution and avoid gatherings and demonstrations. It also announced the cancellation of all movements of its employees until further notice, as part of precautionary measures to confront potential threats.[65] The Somali government attempted to downplay the warning with the Somali Minister of Transport and Civil Aviation, Fardowsa Osman Egal, insisting there was no imminent threat that justified the flight cancellations. "There is no security situation that warrants the suspension of international flights to Mogadishu," Egal told Voice of America Somali. "We continue to receive complete intelligence briefings, and no direct threats have been relayed to us.".[66] The President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, accused the United States of sending out these alerts to undermine and destabilize the Somali government and to cause mass paranoia and panic.[67] Turkish Airlines as a result temporarily suspended all flights to Somalia’s capital Mogadishu until March 12 following the US terror alert,[68][69] while Qatar Airways suspended all flight to Mogadishu indefinitely.[70]

On March 6, 2025, the Somalia’s Council of Ministers expanded security in Mogadishu due to the advances by al-Shabaab and to fight against al-Shabaab.[71]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Mareykanka oo ka qeyb-galay howlgal ka dhacay Gobolka Shabeellaha Dhexe" [The United States participated in an operation in the Middle Shabelle region]. Garowe Online (in Somali). 2020-06-30. Retrieved 2025-02-27.
  2. ^ "مقتل 130 عنصراً من حركة الشباب وسط الصومال" مقتل 130 عنصراً من حركة الشباب وسط الصومال [130 members of Al-Shabaab were killed in central Somalia]. The New Arab. 2025-02-20. Retrieved 2025-02-21.
  3. ^ "Somalia says its army, allied militias repel al Shabaab attacks, kill more than 130". KFGO. 2025-02-20. Retrieved 2025-02-21.
  4. ^ a b Ford, Yale; Tyson, Kathryn; Karr, Liam (2025-02-27). "Africa File, February 27, 2025: SAF Advances West Toward Darfur; M23 and DRC Reset as International Pressure Grows on Rwanda; ISSP Poses Clear Transnational Threat; al Shabaab Central Somalia Offensive". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2025-03-07.
  5. ^ "Somalia says its army, allied militias repel al Shabaab attacks, kill more than 130". Reuters. 2025-02-20. Retrieved 2025-02-21.
  6. ^ "مقتل أكثر من 130 مقاتلًا.. الصومال يعلن التصدي لهجوم جديد لحركة الشباب" مقتل أكثر من 130 مقاتلًا.. الصومال يعلن التصدي لهجوم جديد لحركة الشباب [More than 130 fighters were killed. Somalia announces a new attack by Al-Shabaab]. Al Araby Television Network. 2025-02-20. Retrieved 2025-02-21.
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  39. ^ "Diyaaradaha dagaalka Itoobiya oo duqeymo ka fuliyay gobolka shabeellada dhexe – Goobjoog" [Ethiopian warplanes carry out airstrikes in Middle Shabelle region]. Goobjoog (in Somali). Retrieved 2025-03-07.
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  44. ^ "DEG-DEG: Al-Shabaab oo al Wareegay Deegaanka Al-Kowthar ee Gobalka Sh-dhexe. - Warbaahinta Al-Furqaan" [BREAKING: Al-Shabaab seizes Al-Kowthar village in the Middle Shabelle region]. Radio al-Furqan (in Somali). 2025-03-07. Retrieved 2025-03-07.
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  70. ^ "Turkish Airlines and Qatar Airways Suspend Mogadishu Flights Following US Embassy Terror Alert, Raising Security Concerns at Aden Adde International Airport - Travel And Tour World". 2025-03-07. Retrieved 2025-03-09.
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