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Axis of Upheaval

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Not to be confused with axis of evil.

  Axis of Upheaval (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea)

"Axis of Upheaval" is a term coined in 2024 by Center for a New American Security foreign policy analysts Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor and used by many foreign policy analysts,[1][2][3] military officials,[4][5] and international groups[6] to describe the growing anti-Western collaboration between Russia under Vladimir Putin, Iran, China, and North Korea beginning in the early 2020s. It has also been called the "axis of autocracies",[7][8][9] "quartet of chaos",[10][11][12] the "deadly quartet"[4] or "CRINK".[13][a]

The loose alliance generally represented itself in diplomatic addresses and public statements as an "anti-hegemony" and "anti-imperialist" coalition with intentions to challenge what it deemed to be a Western-dominated global order to reshape international relations into a multipolar order according to their shared interests. While not a formal bloc, these nations have increasingly coordinated their economic, military, and diplomatic efforts, making strong efforts to aid each other to undermine Western influence.[1]

Term

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The "Axis of Upheaval" as a term was coined in the April 2024 article The Axis of Upheaval[1] written by foreign policy analysts Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor for the Foreign Affairs magazine, as part of the Center for a New American Security United States-based national security think tank.[1] Fontaine picked the phrase due to it representing the group of nations' shared disdain for and desire to uproot Western influence and values without using language that was "too overbearing", such as with the terms "Axis of Evil", President Bush's 2002 phrase referring to Iran, Iraq and North Korea;[14][15][16] or "axis of autocracy".[4] Among more neutral terminology, NATO policy planning head Benedetta Berti expressed that she preferred to use the phrase "strategic convergence" instead of "axis" when describing the coalition of nations.[4]

"CRINK"

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At the 2023 Halifax International Security Forum on November 17, 2023,[14][17][18] president Peter Van Praagh introduced the acronym "CRINK" during his opening remarks:

Isolating Russia from the international community brought the other authoritarians to Putin's aid. Now China and Russia and Iran and North Korea, we are calling them the CRINKs, are working to dismantle the global order.

— Peter Van Praagh, 2023[19]

According to Politico, a wide range of Axis-related concerns were shared by Forum participants and remained a central theme throughout the event.[20][21] The term was further used in the forum, with two of its plenary sessions being titled "Victory in Ukraine = Message to the CRINKs"[20] and "Never Mind the BRICS, Here's the CRINKs".[22]

International usage

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After the 2023 Forum, the term "CRINK" was picked up by international media outlets,[18][17][23] It has been adopted internationally by news outlets in Chile,[24] Germany,[25] France,[26] Italy,[27] Poland,[28] Switzerland,[29] Spain,[30] and Belgium.[31] The term "CRINK" has also been mentioned in reports concerning the Russian invasion of Ukraine[17] and the Middle Eastern crisis.[14] and is widely used in discussions regarding the rise of anti-Western sentiment.[32]

Background

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See also: Russian invasion of Ukraine, Cross-strait relations, and Axis of Resistance

The roots of cooperation among nations in the axis stretch back decades during the onset of the Cold War, based on the divide between the First World and Second World. The Soviet Union represented the lead superpower of the latter, providing assistance to and sharing communist, anti-Western philosophies with the People's Republic of China and North Korea.[1]

While these nations have generally remained on neutral or good terms since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, their alliance intensified significantly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Foreign policy analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor stated that it seemed that Russian President Vladimir Putin misjudged the level of "extraordinary" Western coordination between the United States, Europe, and other West-friendly countries on economic sanctions and military aid to Ukraine. She also expressed that the West's hardline and absolute response inadvertently served as a catalyst for Russia to accelerate pushing for closer economic and diplomatic ties with nations at odds with Western nations, due to it seemingly marking a "point of no return" for Russian–Western relations that increased Putin's determination to move past them.[1][33]

In 2021, Clifford May described Russia, China and Iran as neo-imperialist powers who "seek to restore what they consider their rightful realms, and all see the U.S. as their biggest obstacle. It's on this basis that they now have a flourishing alliance".[34] Discussing Russian neo-imperialism in Ukraine, Orlando Figes wrote in 2022 that "we can see a new type of empire arising in Eurasia, uniting countries with historic grievances against the West". He said that "ideas of a nationalist, socially conservative, anti-Western and religious character ... underpin dictatorships in Russia, China, and Iran".[35]

Characteristics

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While the Axis of Upheaval is not a formal union or alliance, it is generally united by a shared opposition to what it calls U.S. hegemony and the Western-led international order. The axis's countries have dramatically increased their economic and military cooperation while coordinating their diplomatic, information, and security efforts, operating as a loose coalition of like-minded states in resistance to economic or ideological pressure from Western nations.[1] Collectively and individually, the Axis is globally known for its countries' authoritarian leadership, their opposition to the West[14] and involvement in military conflicts.[36] The countries have no formal alliance, but are seemingly united by common interests akin to the motto of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."[37]

Anti-Westernism

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See also: Polarity (international relations)

The motivations driving the loose alliance are multi-faceted, but are primarily centered on a desire for greater regional influence and control away from Western powers' imperialism. The axis members reject Western-defined universal values and the "championing of its brand of democracy as an attempt to undermine their legitimacy and foment domestic instability". They view U.S. presence in their regions of influence as a threat to their interests and sovereignty, stating that they should hold the right to instate democracy based on their own institutions and culture instead of being forcibly shaped by Western principles. Collectively, they represent themselves as anti-imperialists sharing the goal of creating a multipolar world order that diminishes U.S. global dominance, which includes resisting "external meddling in their internal affairs, the expansion of U.S. alliances, the stationing of American nuclear weapons abroad, and the use of coercive sanctions".[33]

Autocracy and neo-imperialism

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See also: Russian neo-imperialism and Chinese imperialism

All four states have been described as autocratic or authoritarian with extensive state propaganda campaigns,[38][39][40][41] while Russia, China and Iran have also been described as neo-imperialist or expansionist.[34][40][42] In addition, North Korea is one of the few remaining personalist dictatorships, as well as the oldest surviving dictatorship in the world,[43] with a pervasive cult of personality.[44]

Economic cooperation

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Economic ties among the axis members have strengthened considerably; following an early 2022 signing of a joint agreement between General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin establishing a "no-limits partnership",[27] China has become Russia's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching record levels in 2023 and 2024. In 2023, trade between Russia and China exceeded US$240 billion, with Russia replacing Saudi Arabia's petroleum trade as China's largest petroleum source. Iran and Russia have agreed to conduct trade in each other's national currencies to reduce each other's dependency on the U.S. dollar in international transactions. China has also increased its purchases of Russian oil and natural gas, providing crucial economic support in the face of pressure generated by wide-sweeping Western sanctions. Many of these trade agreements, alternative networks, and transactions across shared borders appeared to be set in place specifically in order to circumvent Western sanctions and trade restrictions.[1][33]

For Iran, exports from Russia increased by 27% from January to October 2022.[33] Russia also defied United Nations Security Council sanctions by unfreezing North Korean assets worth several millions in USD.[1]

Military cooperation

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Military collaboration has also intensified between the four states, with Iran providing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), such as Shahed drones, to Russia for use in Ukraine.[41] From the beginning of Russia's invasion to the end of April 2024, Russia used ~3,700 drones designed by Iran in combat, and expressed plans to collaborate with Iran on constructing a Russian drone factory. Russia reciprocated the military assistance by granting Iran new air defense, intelligence and surveillance capabilities, modern aircraft, and cyber abilities. Russia has also provided Iran and Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah with more weapons, especially following the onset of the 2023 Israel–Hezbollah conflict.[1][33]

While China has publicly avoided transferring weapons to Russia, it has exporting over US$300 million in dual-use items that can be used both by civilians and in the military if shipped components are put together or adapted for military use. Dual-use items exported to Russia from China include microchips, jamming equipment, telecommunications equipment, jet plane parts, sensors and radar, and machine tools, each of which helped to sustain its war effort and avert shortages caused by Western sanctions.[45] From 2018 to 2022, Russia supplied 83% of China's military arms imports. China's exports to Russia contributed to half of its growing supply of computer microchips and components, reaching levels close to where they were prior to the invasion.[33]

North Korea has supplied Russia with roughly 2.5 million ammunition rounds and ballistic missiles.[1] In October 2024, it was revealed that North Korea started sending troops to Russia to support its war in Ukraine.[46]

The four nations have also engaged in various kinds of joint military exercises, including naval exercises between China, Iran, and Russia in the Gulf of Oman over the past three years, and Russian-proposed naval exercises between it, North Korea, and China.[1]

Diplomatic cooperation

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Diplomatic coordination among the axis members has become increasingly apparent, with each nation offering mutual support in international forums such as the United Nations. Russia and China have made efforts to legitimize Iran by including it in organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Their coordinated messaging on global issues frequently stood directly in opposition to Western and United States-led interpretations of world events, with a "shared purpose of overturning the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system".[1]

In addition, Iran has conducted military drills with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), further solidifying its strategic partnerships in the region. Furthermore, the establishment of free trade agreements between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union has enhanced economic ties, allowing for deeper integration within the regional framework.

Russia has defended Hezbollah and other proxies of Iran during UN Security Council debates. Likewise, China has publicly released statements and made stances during international debates blaming NATO interference in Ukraine for starting the war. In addition, Russia, Iran, and China used their state media and social media to support Hamas, to justify actions taken by them, and to criticize Israel and the US following the October 2023 attack for their hypocritical roles in mass civilian attacks and humanitarian crises in the Gaza Strip.[33]

Impact

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The rapid development of the Axis of Upheaval worked to undermine the effectiveness of Western sanctions and export controls such as those against Russia, eroded U.S. military advantages in key regions including the Middle East, and presented increased challenges to international norms and institutions. Moreover, the axis's actions have emboldened other anti-Western states and actors, contributing to a more unstable global environment.[1]

Foreign policy analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor believed that the resulting influence of the axis of nations is pushing transformation of the current "international system" into one characterized by two increasingly organized orders with opposing values and regional interests, a shift she predicted is likely to give rise to greater global instability and initiation of conflict. She noted several instances of increasing worldwide conflict related to the coalition's cooperation. These included increased regional conflicts such as Azerbaijan's renewed invasion and reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh, threats to Guyana from Venezuela, increasing tension between Kosovo and Serbia, and an increase in coups in several African nations including Niger and Burkina Faso. She predicted that opportunistic aggression, such as Russia attacking Europe while the United States is involved in a war against China, could be a future driver of worldwide conflict.[33]

Analysis

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American diplomat and historian Philip Zelikow stated that the Axis of Upheaval represented the third time in recent history that the United States faced a "purposeful set of powerful adversaries in a rapidly changing and militarized period of history, short of all-out war."[47] The prior instances included the Axis Powers of Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany, and Imperial Japan from 1937 to 1941, and the beginning of the Cold War against the Soviet Union and China from 1948 to 1962. He analyzed that the leaders of the current Axis of Upheaval share characteristics with leaders of these earlier periods such as Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and Mao Zedong; viewing themselves as historical figures operating in isolated environments separate from dissenting views and pressures. He stated that this isolation shared by the four nations' leaders can lead to decisions that may seem irrational to outside observers, with autocratic state propaganda further censoring dissenting viewpoints while characterizing other international orders as existential threats to them and their culture that requires conflict and sacrifice to repel.[3]

Challenges

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Despite their growing cooperation, historical distrust from prior events exist, such as the Soviet Union's 1941 invasion of Iran, China's apprehension to North Korea's militant aggression, and a border dispute between Russia and China that ended in 2004. Current competing interests between the nations include disputes between Russia and China over control in Central Asia and competition between Iran and Russia for Asian oil markets. Furthermore, the axis does not seem to have a coherent positive vision for a new global order, and its members remain economically interdependent with the West to varying degrees, making direct opposition to ultimatums issued more difficult to justify. Despite this, political scientist Hal Brands remarked that their alliance forged from their mutual disdain for the "existing order" resembled many of history's "most destructive alliances", which were made from rough agreements to band together against a greater opposing order or alliance with "little coordination and even less affection".[1]

Western response

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In response to this emerging threat, Western nations, led by the United States, have increased their focus on countering the collective challenge posed by the axis, which involved efforts to strengthen existing alliances and partnerships. In 2024, NATO reaffirmed its security commitments in unstable regions such as in Southeast Asia, and called for increased defense spending and diplomatic engagement to match increased cooperation from potentially destabilizing unions.[1] However, rising populism and political polarization in the European Union and the United States threaten to undermine unity in the alliance.[48]

Foreign policy analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor argued that defeating Russia in Ukraine would be crucial to weakening the axis's ability to cause destabilization. She also believed that the US should not de-prioritize Russian aggression towards Ukraine and Europe while primarily focusing on China's South China Sea dispute due to both conflicts being connected by the axis. She stated that Europe needed to develop a stronger military and push for a greater emphasis on foreign policy so that the U.S. could address different global conflicts evenly without its resources and attention being stretched too thin.[33] General Sir Roly Walker corroborated these statements, stating that the United Kingdom needed to "double the lethality of its army" in three years to prepare for conflict with nations of the Axis of Upheaval.[5]

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ An acronym for China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea[13]

References

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  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Kendall-Taylor, Andrea; Fontaine, Richard (April 23, 2024). "The Axis of Upheaval". Foreign Affairs. Vol. 103, no. 3. ISSN 0015-7120. Archived from the original on September 9, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  2. ^ Geri, Maurizio (July 12, 2024). "NATO-EU failing energy strategy against the 'Axis of Upheaval' turns on a DIME". Friends of Europe. Archived from the original on August 2, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  3. ^ a b Glosserman, Brad (May 28, 2024). "Echoes of 1962, the Berlin crisis and a world teetering on war". The Japan Times. Archived from the original on August 2, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  4. ^ a b c d Sabbagh, Dan (July 30, 2024). "'Axis of upheaval' adds urgency to review of UK defence spending". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on September 9, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024., Axis of Resistance,
  5. ^ a b Sabbagh, Dan (July 23, 2024). "Army chief says UK must double its lethality or be prepared for war in 2027". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on September 9, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  6. ^ "NATO Public Forum: The Axis of Upheaval featuring CSIS's Jon B. Alterman". Center for Strategic and International Studies. July 23, 2024. Archived from the original on August 2, 2024. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
  7. ^ "Former NATO Chief Warns Against 'Axis of Autocracies'". Voice of America. January 19, 2024.
  8. ^ Stallard, Katie (September 14, 2023). "Welcome to Putin and Kim's parallel reality". New Statesman.
  9. ^ "The West's Next Challenge Is the Rising Axis of Autocracies". The Wall Street Journal. August 24, 2024.
  10. ^ "Sarah Paine outlines how America should deal with the "quartet of chaos"". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved December 21, 2024.
  11. ^ "Can Europe stop the 'quartet of chaos'? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank". www.chathamhouse.org. December 9, 2024. Retrieved December 21, 2024.
  12. ^ "Biden administration rolls out new plan on 'quartet of chaos'". Voice of America. December 11, 2024. Retrieved December 21, 2024.
  13. ^ a b "World Figures Convene in Canada To Address Threats Posed By CRINK". Iran International. Iran International Newsroom. November 21, 2023. Archived from the original on September 9, 2024. Retrieved August 4, 2024.
  14. ^ a b c d "HFX2023: The Takeaways from This Year in Halifax". Policy Magazine. November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2024.
  15. ^ Gramer, Robbie (November 29, 2023). "Looks Like 'Axis of Evil' Is Back on the Menu". Foreign Policy. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  16. ^ "CRINK: It's the new 'Axis of Evil'". Politico. October 17, 2024. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  17. ^ a b c "'2024 smells like 1938': WW3 'inevitable' unless West wakes up to new threat". iNews. April 19, 2024. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  18. ^ a b "Opinion: We are not at war on several fronts, but one". The Globe and Mail. November 20, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  19. ^ Halifax International Security Forum (November 17, 2023). HFX 2023: Peter Van Praagh Welcome Speech. Retrieved November 18, 2024 – via YouTube.
  20. ^ a b "Fear and gloating about US at top democracy gathering". Politico. November 19, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  21. ^ "Holidays with the CRINKs, Not a Lot of Fun". National Defense Magazine. December 22, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  22. ^ "AGENDA & SPEAKERS | Saturday, November 18". Halifax the Forum. November 18, 2023.
  23. ^ "Crinks' war on West". The Spectator Australia. November 22, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  24. ^ Mack, Alexis Paiva (April 1, 2025). "Cómo una nueva alianza llamada CRINK está trabajando contra EEUU (y cómo Trump podría afectar en sus relaciones)". La Tercera. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  25. ^ Winkler, Lea (October 26, 2024). "„CRINK": Neue „Achse des Bösen" oder Russlands Verzweiflung im Ukraine-Krieg?". www.fr.de (in German). Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  26. ^ de Barochez, Luc (October 29, 2024). "Le quatuor maléfique du « Crink »". Le Point (in French). Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  27. ^ a b Giuliani, Federico (January 29, 2025). ""Una mossa a sorpresa". Così Trump può spezzare l'asse tra Cina, Russia, Iran e Corea del Nord". ilGiornale.it (in Italian). Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  28. ^ "Niemiecki polityk: Ukraina nadal może wygrać, ale musi mieć kompleksowe wsparcie". www.pap.pl (in Polish). June 16, 2024. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  29. ^ Mijuk, Gordana (October 26, 2024). "Die neue Achse des Bösen: Crink". Neue Zürcher Zeitung (in Swiss High German). ISSN 0376-6829. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  30. ^ Borreguero, Eva (December 6, 2024). "Corea del Sur, un autogolpe fallido". El País (in Spanish). Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  31. ^ Breuker, Remco (October 21, 2024). "Kim Jong-un stuurt elitetroepen mee met Rusland: 'Dat is echt heel slecht nieuws, want dat zijn geharde strijders'". demorgen.be (in Dutch). Retrieved April 10, 2025.
  32. ^ de Souza, Rodrigo G. (June 10, 2024). "Who Are the CRINK - The Countries That Form the New "Axis of Evil" in the World and What They Want". The Atlas Report. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  33. ^ a b c d e f g h i Kendall-Taylor, Andrea (May 29, 2024). "The Axis of Upheaval: How the Convergence of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea Will Challenge the US and Europe". ICDS. Archived from the original on August 2, 2024. Retrieved August 1, 2024.
  34. ^ a b May, Clifford (December 15, 2021). "China, Russia and Iran: The empires strike back". The Washington Times.
  35. ^ Orlando Figes (September 30, 2022). "Putin Sees Himself as Part of the History of Russia's Tsars—Including Their Imperialism". Time.
  36. ^ "World Figures Convene in Canada To Address Threats Posed By CRINK". Iran International. November 21, 2023. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  37. ^ Amersi, Mohamed (August 4, 2024). "CRINKs: The New Game in Town". International Policy Digest. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  38. ^ Marsden, Harriet (May 14, 2024). "Crink: the new autocractic 'axis of evil'". The Week.
  39. ^ "West facing 'authoritarian' alliance, says Nato chief". BBC News. April 6, 2024.
  40. ^ a b Mankoff, Jeffrey (2022). Empires of Eurasia: How Imperial Legacies Shape International Security. Yale University Press. pp. 2–9.
  41. ^ a b Axe, David (April 16, 2024). "There is only one war going on and it is global". The Daily Telegraph.
  42. ^ Brands, Hal (April 14, 2024). "China, Russia and Iran Are Reviving the Age of Empires". Bloomberg.
  43. ^ Song, Wonjun; Wright, Joseph (May 22, 2018). "The North Korean Autocracy in Comparative Perspective". Journal of East Asian Studies. 18 (2): 157–180. doi:10.1017/jea.2018.8. ISSN 1598-2408.
  44. ^ "Delving into North Korea's mystical cult of personality". BBC News. December 27, 2011. Retrieved November 26, 2024.
  45. ^ Sher, Nathaniel (May 6, 2024). "Behind the Scenes: China's Increasing Role in Russia's Defense Industry". Carnegie Endowment. Archived from the original on July 13, 2024. Retrieved July 31, 2024.
  46. ^ https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241025001300315 First unit of N. Korean troops deployed to front lines in western Russia: reports
  47. ^ Zelikow, Philip (May 16, 2024). "Confronting Another Axis? History, Humility, and Wishful Thinking". Texas National Security Review.
  48. ^ "NATO Review - Will the populist wave wash away NATO and the European Union?". January 6, 2017.
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