Division of Page

Page Australian House of Representatives Division
Division of Page in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election
Created	1984
MP	Kevin Hogan
Party	Nationals
Namesake	Sir Earle Page
Electors	122,915 (2022)
Area	19,342 km2 (7,468.0 sq mi)
Demographic	Rural
Electorates around Page: Maranoa (QLD) Wright (QLD) Richmond New England Page Pacific Ocean New England Cowper Pacific Ocean

The Division of Page is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales.

History

Sir Earle Page, the division's namesake

The division is named after the Right Honourable Sir Earle Page, the second leader of the Country Party of Australia and the Prime Minister of Australia after the death of Joseph Lyons in 1939. The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 11 October 1984, and was first contested at the 1984 federal election.

Since its creation, Page has usually been a marginal seat, frequently changing hands between the National Party and the Labor Party, with neither party gaining more than 55% of the two party preferred vote at any election except for the 1984 election, the 2019 election and the 2022 Australian federal election . It was considered a bellwether seat from the 1990 election until 2022, when it was comfortably won by the National Party, despite the victory of the Labor Party under Anthony Albanese. Though results vary by election, booths in the City of Lismore LGA are usually Labor's strongest results, while the more rural booths generally deliver strong votes for the Nationals candidate.

It was previously held by Ian Causley, the Deputy Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives. Causley retired at the 2007 election, and Chris Gulaptis, a former Mayor of Maclean, was endorsed as the Nationals' candidate. Labor selected Janelle Saffin, a former member of the New South Wales Legislative Council, who took the seat with a swing of around 8 per cent. Saffin increased her majority in 2010, however was defeated in 2013 by the Nationals' Kevin Hogan, who won with a swing of 6.71 per cent.

Hogan moved to the crossbench in 2018 in protest over the spate of leadership spills in the Liberal Party. However, he still supported the Coalition on confidence and supply, and remained a National in good standing. He rejoined the Coalition before the 2019 election and contested that as a Nationals endorsed candidate.

Boundaries

Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.

The division is located in the far north-east of the state, adjoining the border with Queensland and the Tasman Sea. It includes the towns of Lismore, Casino, Grafton, Tyringham, Bonalbo, Nimbin, Yamba and Iluka. Originally, much of its current territory (including Page's home of Grafton) was located in neighbouring Cowper, which Page represented from 1919 to 1961. In February 2016, Page's borders were extended as far south as Sapphire Beach.

Members

	Image	Member	Party	Term	Notes
		Ian Robinson (1925–2017)	Nationals	1 December 1984 – 24 March 1990	Previously held the Division of Cowper. Lost seat
		Harry Woods (1947–)	Labor	24 March 1990 – 2 March 1996	Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Clarence in 1996
		Ian Causley (1940–2020)	Nationals	2 March 1996 – 17 October 2007	Previously held the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Clarence. Retired
		Janelle Saffin (1954–)	Labor	24 November 2007 – 7 September 2013	Previously a member of the New South Wales Legislative Council. Lost seat. Later elected to the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Lismore in 2019
		Kevin Hogan (1963–)	Nationals	7 September 2013 – 24 August 2018	Incumbent
			Independent National	24 August 2018 – 21 May 2019
			Nationals	21 May 2019 – present

Election results

Main article: Electoral results for the Division of Page

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2022 Australian federal election in New South Wales § Page.[edit]

2022 Australian federal election: Page

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	National	Kevin Hogan	47,701	45.62	−4.01
	Labor	Patrick Deegan	19,531	18.68	−7.68
	Independent	Hanabeth Luke	13,734	13.13	+13.13
	Greens	Kashmir Miller	8,863	8.48	−3.20
	One Nation	Donna Pike	5,621	5.38	+5.38
	Liberal Democrats	Thomas Searles	3,896	3.73	+3.73
	United Australia	Ian Williamson	2,431	2.32	−0.88
	Indigenous-Aboriginal	Brett Duroux	1,733	1.66	+1.66
	Federation	Heather Smith	816	0.78	+0.78
	TNL	Serge Killingbeck	243	0.23	+0.23
Total formal votes			104,569	93.03	−2.22
Informal votes			7,839	6.97	+2.22
Turnout			112,408	91.47	−1.06
Two-party-preferred result
	National	Kevin Hogan	63,512	60.74	+1.29
	Labor	Patrick Deegan	41,057	39.26	−1.29
	National hold		Swing	+1.29

Alluvial diagram for preference flows in the seat of Page in the 2022 federal election. Y indicates at what stage the winning candidate had over 50% of the votes and was declared the winner.

Primary vote results in Page (Parties that did not get 5% of the vote are omitted)

  National

  Liberal

  Labor

  Greens

  Australian Democrats

  One Nation

  Independent

Two-candidate-preferred results in Page

External links

• Division of Page – Australian Electoral Commission