Draft:I3E Economic Uncertainty Index
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I3E Economic Uncertainty Index
[edit]The I3E Economic Uncertainty Index (I3E) is an economic indicator developed by IESE Business School in Spain.[1] It measures the evolution of economic uncertainty in major world economies using a composite of four key economic and financial variables: domestic stock indices, 10-year government bond yields, exchange rates, and international Brent crude oil prices.[2]
The index is updated daily and provides a synthetic measure of uncertainty for researchers, policymakers, and decision-makers.[3]
History
[edit]The I3E Economic Uncertainty Index was developed by professors Miguel A. Ariño and Roberto Garcia-Castro of IESE Business School as a response to the growing need for quantifiable measures of economic uncertainty. It aggregates the daily growth rates of the four selected variables to produce a single synthetic indicator that reflects fluctuations in economic sentiment and market conditions ranging from 0 to 200.
Unlike other well-known metrics of economic uncertainty such as the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index [4] or the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) [5] which often rely on news coverage, survey data, or volatility in specific markets, the I3E uses financial market data—including stock indices, government bond yields, exchange rates, and oil prices—to create a composite measure of uncertainty.[6] This methodological difference allows I3E to provide a real-time, high-frequency perspective on market sentiment and economic risk. Researchers and policymakers often use I3E together with other indices to gain a broader understanding of how uncertainty evolves across different countries and contexts.[7]
Scope
[edit]The I3E Economic Uncertainty Index is updated daily and currently covers 22 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.
For each country, daily historial time series data is available from 1990 until the present date.
By providing daily uncertainty data for a broad set of major economies, the index enables international comparisons and supports timely analysis of global economic trends and shocks.
External Links
[edit]Official I3E Economic Uncertainty Index site: https://wdecisions.github.io/i3e/
References
[edit]- ^ "IESE Business School". IESE Business School. Retrieved 2025-06-04.
- ^ International Center for Decision Making (ICDM) (2025). "I3E Economic Uncertainty Index: Technical Note" (PDF). IESE Business School. Retrieved 2025-06-04.
- ^ "I3E Economic Uncertainty Index – Official Website". IESE Business School. Retrieved 2025-06-04.
- ^ Baker, Scott R.; Bloom, Nick; Davis, Steven J. (2016). "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty" (PDF). The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 131 (4): 1593–1636. doi:10.1093/qje/qjw024.
- ^ Ahir, Hites; Bloom, Nick; Furceri, Davide (2018). "The World Uncertainty Index". SSRN Electronic Journal. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3275033.
- ^ International Center for Decision Making (ICDM) (2025). "I3E Economic Uncertainty Index: Technical Note" (PDF). IESE Business School. Retrieved 2025-06-04.
- ^ María Gil, Javier J. Pérez y Alberto Urtasun, Artículos analíticos (2 February 2017). "Incertidumbre macroeconómica: medición e impacto sobre la economía española" (PDF). Banco de España. Retrieved 16 January 2022.