User talk:KingEdinburgh

Senior military turnover

@Neovu79: There's been much talk on how the incoming president may be bolder in defying norms in his second term.

Would relieving a select few four-star officers associated (justifiably or otherwise) with divisive policies under the outgoing administration, and promoting those found to be more sound in personal interviews (like CJCS Milley, who was deemed more "macho" than DOD pick Goldfein), be feasible?

Social media, echo chamber that it is, is worrying about the prospect of a military purge, clearly not understanding the nuances of officer appointment procedures under Title 10. That being said, high-ranking officers holding extra-constitutional beliefs are not unheard of, like LTG Flynn, BG Bolduc, and Lt Gen McInerney.

What are the chances of a more mundane version of this, maybe even the intra-term relief of Gen Brown as CJCS?

A heightened, unscheduled pattern of high-level reliefs could disrupt our usual work significantly. SuperWIKI (talk) 02:00, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Seeing that this is the most number of black four-star officers the military has ever had at one time in history, and given Trump's history of extremism and other factors, it would not surprise me if he fires all of them to put a white four-star in their positions to "rectify" that. Neovu79 (talk) 03:39, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

I actually would be surprised if he removed people just based on race, especially in combatant commands that are in less major theaters. EPMen (talk) 02:07, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

If such a thing were to happen, it will likely not be race-based on the surface. It's more likely that they will fall back to the concept of "the president needs appointees who will work well with him", a key consideration for the JCS chairman in particular, and non-military political appointees. This was never applied forcefully on the apolitical military four-star brass (though it is not unheard of, especially with term-limited service chiefs in the past), but the incoming president has no compunctions about defying established norms. SuperWIKI (talk) 05:54, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

@SuperWIKI @Neovu79 @KingEdinburgh I did speak too soon. He's drafting an executive order that would purge officers he deems insufficiently loyal. https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-draft-executive-order-would-create-board-to-purge-generals-7ebaa606

However, I don't think he'd purge much from non-frontline commands. EPMen (talk) 04:12, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

Well... Unfortunately U.S. law does say all three and four-stars serve at the pleasure of the president. It is within the president's power to create, said committee, if he so chooses. In reality, he could fire them without cause, and anytime, but that would completely rile up those in uniform, which is why the Executive Order makes sense to have in place. On a side note, you better believe that Trump will fire GEN Charles R. Hamilton as soon as he's in office. Hamilton fits the mold of "woke generals" to a T. Neovu79 (talk) 04:24, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

@Neovu79 I also highly doubt the next SECDEF would keep Lt. Gen. Short as his Senior Military Assistant considering he has publicly spoken out against women in combat. EPMen (talk) 00:34, 14 November 2024 (UTC)

@Neovu79I also tend to doubt he'd fire EVERY service chief and vice chief. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/exclusive-trumps-team-drawing-up-list-of-pentagon-officers-to-fire-sources-say/ar-AA1u2kW9 EPMen (talk) 05:33, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Senator Mullin is holding up LTG Donahue's nomination for four-star for being involved in the withdrawal from Afghanistan as 82nd Airborne's CG. If Ezra Cohen's words are any indication (that no generals or admirals should be approved by the Republican-led Senate during the presidential transition), most of Biden's unconfirmed military nominations will be allowed to expire at the end of the 118th Congress, and will only be resubmitted after the president-elect's promotion board releases its results next year. SuperWIKI (talk) 01:18, 24 November 2024 (UTC)

Well, some of the one-star and two-star nominees have already been approved. I'm surprised that all branches except the Air Force and Space Force have submitted their one-star nominees for the next fiscal year. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I5IbXHmzjzAte4W5SMggzyCt2QTvpsi0ZZ6jnhiMHWg/edit?usp=sharing

The Army's have already been confirmed. A little surprised actually since 1-star and 2-star officers are NOT selected by the President but by selection boards. Those those selections boards are filled with 3-star and 4-star officers, who ARE chosen by the President. @SuperWIKI @Neovu79 @KingEdinburgh @Morinao EPMen (talk) 05:00, 26 November 2024 (UTC)

Additional article on the Donahue hold from Task and Purpose: https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army-europe-commander-nomination-hold/.

Would also recommend reading this: it covers some of the problems with a "purge" that Morinao and I discussed on the former's talk page: https://taskandpurpose.com/news/generals-admirals-promotion-changes-trump/. SuperWIKI (talk) 14:48, 26 November 2024 (UTC)

oh I just posted this on your talk page because there's so many talk pages that 6 of us float between that it's become a bit of a clusterfuck. @SuperWIKI EPMen (talk) 18:27, 29 November 2024 (UTC)

Guess who was relieved of command yesterday.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army-general-fired-hamilton/ Neovu79 (talk) 08:35, 11 December 2024 (UTC)

HAW HAW!! SuperWIKI (talk) 09:57, 11 December 2024 (UTC)

Possible removals

@Morinao, EPMen, and Neovu79: On the topic of who may be removed. Since this discussion started, Pete Hegseth was nominated to be secretary of defense, and there exists a draft executive order forming a board to remove senior officers deemed insufficiently in step with the incoming administration — especially supporters of using CRT/DEI to determine personnel selections and promotions.

Neovu brought up GEN Hamilton as an example of a "woke general to a T" in relation to meddling with an ex-subordinate's promotion assessment, and I suggested Gen Brown (so have others) and ADM Franchetti as possible undesirables. If Franchetti gets axed, ADM Paparo might get a second shot. Since Paparo was the DOD's pick for CNO before being overruled in favour of Franchetti, his nomination might be good politics — appointing someone seemingly sidelined for the position for "woke" reasons. Paparo will turn 60 by the end of the year, perfect for a four-year term.

For who replaces Brown, Morinao and I agreed that the incoming administration can't fundamentally change the officer corps into MAGA loyalists in four years, even by investing all of its political capital into doing so. However, controversial officers within age limits deemed "completely unpromotable without [the president-elect's] patrimony" could be recalled from retirement to relieve Brown, such as Anthony Tata, Don Bolduc, Steven L. Kwast (see here), and Mike Flynn. They'd make a dent in who is acceptable for promotion to the highest ranks.

I looked through the r/AirForce subreddit a few days ago. The current VCSAF, Gen Slife is incredibly unpopular to Gen McPeak/Foglesong levels. Slife, a special operations officer, would normally not be a top pick for CSAF (only 3 out of the 11 VCSAFs since 2001, and Goldfein was specifically groomed for it). It's not unheard of for senior officers to be moved into traditional positions from more specialised career paths (Miller, Webb). However, Slife seems to have an aggressive, take-charge, budget-cutting attitude that is heavily scorned by airmen but might be excellent for a CSAF under the president-elect. Uncertain of what the Biden-era CSAF's office saw in Slife that justified his four-star promotion, or what a Harris/Walz administration would have done with him.

More on Reddit, r/moderatepolitics has an excellent discussion on the subject.

Who else, from the four-star list, is ripe for elimination? Morinao, do you think racial factors (as discussed above) will play a significant role in who the president-elect removes and who he promotes? SuperWIKI (talk) 09:20, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

It seems like the biggest risk factors for who gets fired are perceived ties to bugaboos like Milley (JS: Poppas, Mingus, Koehler, Franchetti, Allvin, Munsch; Army: potentially anyone), the Afghanistan withdrawal (Donahue, Buzzard, perhaps CENTCOM component commanders and staff like Guillot, Cooper, Bradley, Grynkewich, Henry, or even Paparo, depending on how they view McKenzie), the previous administration generally (entire JCS but especially Brown), and previous SecDefs specifically (SMA: Clark, George, Smith). I think racial or gender factors will play a lesser role in firings, except for individuals who already have a narrative associated with them (Brown, Franchetti, Hamilton). However, four-star demographics will trend white and male anyway if candidates like Short, Lenderman, and Joyner are systematically passed over for the same reason Esper left Van Ovost and Richardson to be nominated by the next administration.

- Morinao (talk) 01:33, 21 November 2024 (UTC)

@Morinao@SuperWIKI@KingEdinburgh.@Neovu79

Now Senator Mullin is blocking LTG Donahue's 4-star nomination due to his "role" (he was just pictured as the last man out) in the Afghanistan withdrawal.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5005119-senate-blocks-promotion-general/ EPMen (talk) 17:00, 25 November 2024 (UTC)

@Morinao@SuperWIKI @KingEdinburgh @Neovu79 @Garuda28, I found the list of which general and flag officers the American Accountability Foundation is urging Hegseth to fire. Here's the list (https://www.scribd.com/document/801959915/AAF-Purge-List).

If for some reason you get a paywall, here's who is on the list:

4-stars

-USN ADM Lisa Franchetti.

-USAF Gen. Kevin Schneider.

3-stars

-USA LTG Anthony Hale.

-USA LTG Laura Potter. (She is likely close to retirement anyways).

-USA LTG Andrew Rohling.

-USN VADM Shoshana Chatfield.

-USN VADM Jeffrey Hughes. (Also likely close to retirement).

-USN VADM Brendan McLane.

-USAF Lt. Gen. Rebecca Sonkiss.

2-stars

-USA MG Ronald Ragin.

-USNR RADM Robert Nowakowski.

-USAF Maj. Gen. Scott Cain.

-USAF Maj. Gen. John R. Edwards.

-USAF Maj. Gen. Stacy Jo Huser.

-USAFR Maj. Gen. Elizabeth Arledge.

-USAFR Maj. Gen. Jody Merritt.

1-stars

-USN RDML Amy Bauernschmidt.

-USN RDML Neil Koprowski.

-USAF Brig. Gen. Corey Simmons.

Also, USAF Col. Benjamin Jonsson, whose promotion to Brigadier General has been blocked for over a year.

Of the 19 names mentioned, 8 (Franchetti, Potter, Chatfield, Sonkiss, Huser, Arldege, Merritt, and Bauernschmidt) are women. Surprisingly, only 1 (Ragin) is Black. And then 1 (Edwards) is Asian-American. EPMen (talk) 04:52, 11 December 2024 (UTC)

Surprised Hamilton isn't in there as Neovu mentioned earlier. SuperWIKI (talk) 05:45, 11 December 2024 (UTC)

Well he already got fired and his rank was reverted to 2-star. @SuperWIKI https://breakingdefense.com/2024/12/army-material-command-head-relieved-of-duty-following-investigation/ EPMen (talk) 15:50, 11 December 2024 (UTC)

Confirmed. Hamilton has reverted back to major general. https://www.gomo.army.mil/public/Biography/usa-9745/charlesr-hamilton Neovu79 (talk) 18:54, 12 December 2024 (UTC)

@SuperWIKI, EPMen, KingEdinburgh, Garuda28, and Morinao: and so the purge begins. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coast-guard-commandant-terminated-over-border-lapses-recruitment-dei-focus-official Neovu79 (talk) 07:30, 21 January 2025 (UTC)

Just saw. However, Gen Brown may be in less danger now.

Fagan's removal may have been warranted based on the Academy scandal alone. SuperWIKI (talk) 07:38, 21 January 2025 (UTC)

Wow... She found out that she was fired at the inaugural ball, while waiting in line to get a picture with President Trump. That's brutal. https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fired-highest-ranking-ever-woman-in-military-at-his-ball Neovu79 (talk) 05:08, 26 January 2025 (UTC)

@SuperWIKI@KingEdinburgh@Neovu79@Morinao@Garuda28

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/politics/hegseth-could-fire-senior-generals-admirals/index.html

I'd be livid if they fire ADM Franchetti. It is ridiculous to suggest she was only put in the position because she is a woman. In fact, she has similar if not MORE experience than previous male surface warfare officers who served as CNO. EPMen (talk) 18:26, 20 February 2025 (UTC)

@EPMen unfortunately that's exactly what happened. Lloyd Austin recommended ADM Paparo for CNO. https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2023/06/12/secdef-taps-us-pacific-fleets-adm-paparo-to-be-next-cno/ and President Biden passed him over in favor of Franchetti. If the best officer is passed over based on DEI, that's wrong. However, it doesn't mean that Franchetti should be fired over it. I am not fan of DEI programs the military, so I am all for a clean slate at the top, in due course that is, and not through hasty decisions. Neovu79 (talk) 00:19, 21 February 2025 (UTC)

@Neovu79 I remember when that happened. I wouldn't necessarily call her a DEI hire. We know that SECDEF Austin recommended ADM Paparo over ADM Franchetti for CNO but we don't know who else was considered for INDOPACOM. It's possible he was the best qualified for both and given that it was impossible to give him both jobs, they gave ADM Franchetti the job of CNO, which she was far more qualified for than INDOPACOM, as she hadn't served in the Pacific since she was an O-7 (which is still more recent than ADM Phil Davidson has served in the Pacific at the time of his nomination to lead INDOPACOM) nor had she had any 4-star commands (only the staff position of VCNO).

As a side, even though I'm 99% sure the Trump administration will not nominate VADM Joyner for VCNO when it comes open next, I DO think she is the most qualified person. As the Director, J8, on the Joint Staff, she works closely with the Vice Chairman and the Joint Requirements Oversight Council, of which the VCNO is also a member. EPMen (talk) 04:34, 21 February 2025 (UTC)

@SuperWIKI, EPMen, KingEdinburgh and so the purge continues. Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. was just fired. https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/21/politics/trump-fires-top-us-general-cq-brown/index.html Neovu79 (talk) 01:16, 22 February 2025 (UTC)

@Neovu79 @SuperWIKI @KingEdinburgh

I'm MAD.

And it looks like ADM Franchetti. and Gen. Slife are being booted too (though it seems he's allowing them to stay in their positions until their replacements are selected). I'm LIVID about ADM Franchetti. On the Navy subreddit, she is well liked. I'm not mad about Gen. Slife since on the Air Force subreddit, he is not liked at all.

And very bold to deep-select a 3-star to be CJCS, a feat never done before. But not surprised he's going with Lt. Gen. Caine given that Trump has a past history of relying on his advice. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/2882237/man-behind-trump-plan-eradicate-isis-4-weeks/

Prior to reading the aforementioned article, I hadn't realized that Caine had supposedly donned a MAGA hat in a meeting with Trump. Given that, I'm now surprised that Biden nominated him to the 3-star ranks.

• • • Side note on ADM Franchetti, she attended Northwestern University at the same time as my aunt (my mother is also a Northwestern alum but she graduated a decade earlier). They were three years apart but were in the same sorority in the one year they overlapped. And when I recently met one of my aunt's college friends, she said that ADM Franchetti graduated in three years (which explains her 1964 birthdate despite having graduated in 1985).

EPMen (talk) 01:27, 22 February 2025 (UTC)

@EPMen Confirmed: Franchetti and Slife were also fired. https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/20/politics/hegseth-could-fire-senior-generals-admirals/index.html Neovu79 (talk) 01:34, 22 February 2025 (UTC)

OMG! It's happening – everybody stay calm! SuperWIKI (talk) 02:51, 22 February 2025 (UTC)

@EPMen, @SuperWIKI, and @KingEdinburgh even more purges. The JAGs for each service have been fired; including the Navy's acting JAG, who's actual JAG voluntarily retired in January. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1893190302376046819 and https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/02/21/fired-joint-chiefs-chairman-top-navy-leader-air-force-vice-chief-service-judge-advocates-general.html Neovu79 (talk) 09:21, 22 February 2025 (UTC)

Lt Gen Short, senior military assistant to SecDef, was just fired according to NBC (via two unnamed officials). LTG LaNeve is being considered to replace her. Not updating her article until more concrete secondary sources emerge. SuperWIKI (talk) 15:32, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

Seconding EPMen that the Franchetti CNO appointment was not DEI. Fifteen years ago, people tried to nitpick service records of pioneering female flag officers like Tyson (TACAMO community historically did not get CSG commands) or Howard (commanded ESG not CSG, no numbered fleet) as gender-inspired deviations from standard assignment norms, but Franchetti's record (SWO, CSG, 6th Fleet) is absolutely indistinguishable from Grady or any other Navy superstar being groomed for the highest commands. In fact, it would have been more of a deviation if she hadn't been selected, given the available four-star bench (Paparo, Caudle, Munsch, Franchetti), which is why people were so surprised when Paparo got the initial nod. Since Paparo was the only obvious Navy candidate for INDOPACOM, there was speculation that Austin was trying to free INDOPACOM for an Army general -- presumably Fenton, Flynn (who would have been a heavy political lift), or LaCamera. - Morinao (talk) 00:08, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

Whether we see it as DEI or not, it's entirely moot. By law, all four-stars serve at the pleasure of the president. Surprised or not, Paparo was just as qualified for CNO as his service record nearly mirrors Fanchetti in Europe and the Middle East. The only major difference is their initial four-star assignments. Trump doesn't need a reason to remove officers as it falls within his executive powers, set by the Constitution and U.S. law protects the president from being sued for firing someone working under the executive branch discrimination. Look... I do get your frustration and resentment over the firings, I do. But I can't say that I hate having a clean slate at the top; I don't like the timing of them. They should have at least given the option to transition out, instead of being fired outright. Neovu79 (talk) 01:15, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

I don't think anyone is arguing that the President doesn't have the right to fire four-stars at will. But it's wrong to accept that Franchetti really was a DEI hire for CNO just because that's the reason being given for firing her now. The surprise was not that Paparo was less qualified to be CNO, since he and Franchetti were about equal for that assignment. The surprise was that he was being tapped for CNO despite also being the only real Navy candidate for INDOPACOM, meaning the Navy might finally lose its lock on that position given that the Army and Air Force had several four-stars with more high-level Pacific experience than any of the other Navy four-stars.

Abstracting away from this specific instance, I do agree that there is an argument for the President to be able to pick his own JCS at the start of his term like Eisenhower did, and especially his own CJCS. Goldwater-Nichols originally envisioned aligning the CJCS term with that of the President, but Pace's firing got it out of phase and every President since then has chafed at having to deal with a lame-duck CJCS from the previous administration for most of his first term (Mullen, Dunford, Milley). Even before then, new administrations resented the nine-month overlap with the previous CJCS (Powell, Shelton). So regardless of whether Brown himself deserved to be fired, resynchronizing the presidential and CJCS terms is probably beneficial in the long run. - Morinao (talk) 01:48, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

I once mentioned elsewhere that if Gen Brown was fired, he should've been allowed to complete the once-standard 2 year term with reappointment – i.e. to be relieved on Oct 1. SuperWIKI (talk) 06:44, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

In relation to Franchetti and other (re-)appointments of women to four-star billets like Richardson and Van Ovost (initially considered under SecDef Esper) – it's a matter of the political approach taken by the administration. Generals Dunwoody (first woman 4-star), Wolfenbarger (first USAF woman four-star), and Robinson (first female combatant commander), didn't receive nearly as vigorous a PR push by their appointers, the Bush 43 and Obama administrations, as the Biden administration's picks did. Can it be argued that the Biden administration leaned too hard into tokenism here? The vibes therein may have, from the current administration's POV, damaged their selection from the outset. SuperWIKI (talk) 06:20, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

Given the record number of women and black four-star officers that have been appointed under the Biden administration, it's hard to argue against tokenism. Neovu79 (talk) 16:25, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

It's not tokenism to pick a qualified candidate based on their record, and afterward celebrate that someone from their demographic finally rose to that position on merit, like when Colin Powell became CJCS. (And Dunwoody's promotion really was a huge deal at the time.)

But who are we actually talking about? If I'm counting correctly, just as many female four-stars were selected under Trump (Maryanne Miller, Richardson, Van Ovost) as Biden (Levine, Fagan, Franchetti), given that Richardson and Van Ovost were originally picked by Esper who punted their nominations to the next administration. Certainly fewer black four-stars were selected under Trump (Brown twice, Garrett, Perna OWS, Nakasone if you want to count other ethnicities) than Biden (USA: Williams, Brito, Hamilton, Clark, Brunson, USAF: Brown, Cotton, Reed, USMC: Langley, USN: Holsey) but all of them them had the usual assignment history for those posts except maybe Williams (USMA Supt) and Brito. When you flip enough coins, sometimes you get an unusually long run, just like when one service wins way more joint positions than usual. - Morinao (talk) 23:12, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

If you count their reappointments under Biden, that's the record DEI I'm referring to, not just who appointed them to their initial four-star assignment. Neovu79 (talk) 23:57, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

@Morinao and Neovu79: What are your thoughts on deep-selecting a retired three-star, Lt Gen Caine, to serve as CJCS? In a Reddit discussion on the issue, I've been blocking and tackling on the two strikes for "unprecedentedness" here. Firstly, a retired officer has not been recalled to serve in a four-star grade since GEN Schoomaker was recalled in 2003 to serve as Army chief of staff (by Rumsfeld); and not recalled to serve as CJCS since GEN Taylor in 1961. Secondly, a three-star deep select for four-star office was effected by the first Trump administration in 2019 to nominate VADM Gilday as CNO; however, one-star deep selects for three-star grades are frequent, if not common.

I've observed buzz on Caine's experience for the job. I believe he has as much experience as any member of the upper brass – the Special Access Programs Central Office (SAPCO) is DOD's central authority for most high-level classification ("Top Secret"), for instance. Moreover, given that many being groomed for high rank are accelerated through standard-issue assignments (e.g. division command for the Army) to give them the on-paper prerequisites for four-star, Caine has arguably skipped all that by virtue of being an intelligence specialist. I'm an institutionalist who naturally falls back to existing cultures and procedures, and despite my personality, even I think concerns online about Caine being completely unqualified are misplaced. SuperWIKI (talk) 06:40, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

I'm not against the pick, but I still think that the Navy is way under represented in terms of four stars, given their active duty size. The Army has almost twice as many total force uniformed personnel than the Air Force, yet the Air Force had the most four-stars, prior to the purges. The Navy has the second largest active duty force, but the Air Force gets preferential treatment due to them being augmented with a 100,000+ Air National Guard reserve force. Neovu79 (talk) 16:55, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

I would flip this -- the Air Force has been way over-represented in non-joint-duty four-stars for decades, with a separate four-star for each major community (fighter/etc., bomber, airlift, materiel, space before USSF) plus Pacific and European forces. Since 1916 the Navy has been remarkably consistent in its non-joint-duty four-star requirements: 1 service chief and, post-unification, 1 vice chief; 1 fleet commander for each coast (Pacific and Atlantic); and 1 overseas commander with allied/diplomatic duty (Asiatic Fleet, Europe/NATO) -- plus NAVSEA-08, a Rickover legacy that effectively gives the submarine community its own four-star. If the Navy followed the Air Force model, the surface warfare and aviation communities would each have a dedicated four-star as well. - Morinao (talk) 23:13, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

Caine does not have anywhere close to the experience of any previous service chief or combatant commander, let alone CJCS. He is a National Guardsman with no command or senior staff assignments as a general officer, whose only jobs above brigadier general were at SAPCO and CIA, which are specialized silos far outside the military mainstream. He has never served in the Pentagon, either on the Joint or Air Staff, so he has no budget experience at the national level. He has never served in an active-duty MAJCOM or the Air Staff, so he did not grow up with the active-duty high-fliers in his cohort who are now three- and four-star generals. His most significant senior assignment with active-duty forces was as a one-star deputy in SOCOM -- which is its own silo.

All this means he never had the opportunity to build the broad network, service reputation, and institutional expertise across the Air Force at large that any active-duty officer develops by the time they make three or four stars. So unlike every previous CJCS, he has no personal power base that he can mobilize even within his own service to help him be effective at imposing the policies of his principal, the President. But if, after Milley, all that's wanted is a figurehead CJCS with no independent influence or gravitas, who can speak only for the President and never himself, then this is probably a feature, not a bug. - Morinao (talk) 23:14, 23 February 2025 (UTC)

2025 Joint 4-star/ 3-star speculation

Now that it's almost 2025, I'm going to predict some of the 4-star and 3-star positions that will turn over in the coming year (for 3-stars, only command/ director positions, not staff positions). Given the change in administration and the pressure the new POTUS and SECDEF are facing to fire certain leaders, I'm probably going to be off on some. Today, I'll just focus joint positions and will do the branches another time. (I'll probably do Army and Air Force one day, then Navy and Marine Corps another day). @SuperWIKI@KingEdinburgh@Neovu79@Garuda28@Morinao.

JOINT 4-star

Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: With the terms of the CJCS and VCJCS now staggered, I'm expecting the nominee for Vice Chairman will be from either the Army (which has never has a ) or the Marine Corps with the Space Force having an outside chance. The current CJCS is from the Air Force and the CJCS and VCJCS can't be from the same branch. I also don't think it will be another Navy admiral given that when the current CJCS's term expires, the Navy will be long overdue for that role, given that no Navy admiral has held that job since ADM Mike Mullen. For the last two years, my frontrunner for the VCJCS role has been GEN Fenton. I tend to doubt the next administration would choose GEN Brito or GEN Poppas. I also tend to doubt it will be Gen Langley. While no service Vice Chief has been elevated directly to VCJCS, both GEN Mingus and Gen Mahoney would make sense.

Commander, US Africa Command: This one is probably going to be the hardest to predict. Other than CENTCOM, I don't see any other joint 4-star position that are likely to go to a Marine officer so my Marine corps picks for this position are Lt. Gen Cederholm and Lt Gen Turner, with the former being more likely. With AFRICOM mostly being a special operations theater, I'll mention GEN Mingus and Lt. Gen. Anderson. Of the two, Lt. Gen. Anderson has the higher chance since he previously commanded Special Operations Command Africa.

Commander, US Central Command: I know @Neovu79 disagrees but I really do think it's overdue that this billet goes to someone from the Navy or Air Force. I've previously stated that my frontrunners from those branches are VADM Cooper and Lt. Gen. Grynkewich. If it were to be from the Army, I'd guess either GEN Mingus or GEN Poppas. With MARCENT no longer being a 3-star position, my top pick from the Marine Corps is Lt Gen Turner.

Commander, US European Command/ Supreme Allied Commander Europe: Given how high profile this role is, I'm sure this is one of the few where the next President will actually interview people for this role. GEN Mingus is the type of person he'd pick based solely on optics but he's definitely NOT the best qualified. The two most qualified people for this role are Gen. Hecker and GEN Poppas. Gen. Lamontagne is also qualified but he's only been in his role less than a year and is young enough to still get the job the next time it comes open in 2028.

Commander, US Special Operations Command: With GEN Donahue now at USAREUR-AF, this is really VADM Bradley's to lose. I suppose GEN Mingus and Lt. Gen. Anderson have an outside chance.

Commander, US Strategic Command: This role has always gone to either a Navy or Air Force officer. The top candidate from the Air Force is Gen. Bussiere. And the top candidates from the Navy are ADM Caudle and VADM Correll. All three of these names are 60 years old or older though with Caudle turning the maximum age to be confirmed without a waiver, 62, in 2025.

JOINT 3-star

Commander, Joint Special Operations Command: From the Army, my top pick is MG Evans. From the Navy, my top pick is RADM Williams (he served as DEVGRU commander which RADM Sands did not). And from the Air Force, my top pick is Maj. Gen. Benjamin Maitre.

Director, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency: It's possible this role could go to a civilian but if it were to go to another military officer, my top picks are Army MG Timothy D. Brown, Navy VADM Vernazza, Air Force Maj. Gen. Matteo Martemucci, and Space Force Maj. Gen. Gagnon.

PEO, F-35 Lightning II Joint Program Office: This is another one that'll be hard to predict. Lt. Gen. White is already a 3-star but he's the most qualified without question. USAF Maj. Gen. Anthony Genatempo is the next most qualified from the Air Force. From the Navy, no 2-star acquisition line flag officer seem like an obvious pick. EPMen (talk) 02:10, 23 December 2024 (UTC)

I think CENTCOM will go to the Air Force if an Army man isn't picked. Ditto on Grynkewich. In how the administration is looking for a more compliant and custom-busting top brass, seeing who fits in the current one-star and two-star lineup would be helpful. If Hegseth turns out to be nothing more than a Rumsfeld 2.0, unexpected picks will not be any more destructive than they've been in recent history. SuperWIKI (talk) 08:14, 23 December 2024 (UTC)

We also have to consider the possible premature relief of CJCS Brown and what that could mean for the staggering of terms. SuperWIKI (talk) 03:48, 24 December 2024 (UTC)

2025 Branch 4-star/ 3-star speculation

Like before, not speculating on staff positions, only command/ director positions except for ones where it's obvious. I'll get to 3-stars tomorrow. @SuperWIKI @KingEdinburgh @Neovu79 @Garuda28 @Morinao.

Army 4-star

Commanding General, US Army Futures Command: I think LTG Hodne is the clear favorite. The only other possibility I can think of is LTG Gingrich.

Commanding General, US Army Forces Command: With LTG McGee nominated to take LTG Sims's spot as Director of the Joint Staff, I think LTG Sims is the obvious frontrunner for FORSCOM. Other possibilities are LTG Bernabe and LTG Costanza.

Commanding General, US Army Training and Doctrine Command: I think LTG Beagle would be the definite pick if Austin were continuing as SECDEF but alas, he's not. He's still a possibility but I'll also once again mention LTG Bernabe and LTG Costanza as well as LTG Smith.

Navy 4-star

Commander, US Fleet Forces Command: I think VADM Cooper should be the favorite assuming he doesn't land at CENTCOM. ADM Kilby could also follow in the footsteps of other former VCNOs and move to a command position as a second four-star tour, which would make sense as he previously served as Deputy at US Fleet Forces Command.

Commander, US Naval Forces Europe and Africa: My top pick is VADM Dwyer. I won't count out ADM Kilby or VADM Cooper here either. I'll also mention VADM Kacher, who as a Captain, served as Executive Assistant to the Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

Air Force 4-star

Commander, Air Force Materiel Command: Lt. Gen. Shipton is the most qualified. Other possibilities are Lt. Gen. White and Lt. Gen. Miller.

Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command: This will likely either go to Lt. Gen. Lutton or Lt. Gen. Gebara.

Commander, US Air Forces in Europe and Africa: I think this will go to either Lt. Gen. Spain or Lt. Gen. Koscheski. EPMen (talk) 02:02, 24 December 2024 (UTC)

Public Health Service 4-star

Assistant Secretary for Health: Former ADM Brett Giroir. He just rejoined the HHS to serve as an infectious diseases advisor to Secretary Kennedy. Could be a stepping stone for him to return as ASH. Neovu79 (talk) 07:30, 15 February 2025 (UTC)

Nomination of VADM Pappano as Deputy Administrator, NNSA + what positions could be downgraded or consolidated

@KingEdinburgh, Neovu79, and EPMen: Hi all! I've been laying low on the editing schedule due to work, and waiting to see what the current president will do regarding senior military turnover. So far it's been tolerable. Only ADM Fagan (relieved) and VADM French (requested early retirement last December) have left the administration. Several positions lie vacant due to delayed Senate confirmation or controversy – LTG Mohan has been acting commander of Army Materiel Command for almost a year now.

And it's getting spicier. VADM Pappano, the current principal military deputy to the assistant secretary of the Navy (research, development, and acquisition), has been nominated as deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) (see here). Since I recall this position to be a civilian appointment, with the nomination not suggesting otherwise, Pappano will have to retire. Who will succeed him? Will his current position be axed?

Secondly, with DOGE poking around USAID, I sense some shakeup of the upper military brass incoming, once the Pentagon's civilian leadership is confirmed (Tata will return as under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness). Any 4-star or 3-star positions that can reasonably be cut? For 2-stars, it's hard to narrow down, but I've seen an uptick in the number of "special assistants" and "special liaisons" in the last six months.

I'll probably be doing some non-positional housekeeping on the list (consistency, links, and stuff) this week. Thanks! SuperWIKI (talk) 15:54, 11 February 2025 (UTC)

Well... I looked up Title 50, U.S. Code, Chapter 41. I'm not 100% positive but I think the subsection for Principal Deputy Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration which is what VADM Pappano is nominated for, is 50 U.S.C. § 2404 it's the only subsection for Deputy Administrators that have the word "Principle" in it. If it is, then nothing in the law bars an active duty military officer from holding the position. Normally this nomination would go to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, but instead, it's sitting in the Armed Services Committee. That leads me to believe that he's at least retaining his rank. Neovu79 (talk) 03:09, 12 February 2025 (UTC)