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2023 United States gubernatorial elections

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For related races, see 2023 United States elections.
2023 United States gubernatorial elections
← 2022 November 7, 2023
October 14 (Louisiana)		 2024 →
3 governorships
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Seats before 26 24
Seats after 27 23
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 1
Popular vote 1,741,855 1,389,283
Percentage 54.34% 43.34%
Seats up 1 2
Races won 2 1
2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election
     Republican gain      Democratic hold
     Republican hold

United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 7, 2023, in the states of Kentucky and Mississippi, with an election having occurred in Louisiana on October 14. These elections form part of the 2023 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2019.

In Louisiana, term-limited incumbent John Bel Edwards was succeeded by Jeff Landry, flipping the seat from Democratic to Republican control. In Kentucky, Democrat Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term. In Mississippi, Republican Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term.

Partisan composition

[edit]

Going into the election, there were 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors in the United States. This class of governors was made up of 1 Republican and 2 Democrats. Democrats were defending two governorships in states Donald Trump won in 2020 (Kentucky and Louisiana).[1][2]

Election predictions

[edit]

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, with the rating indicating a party's predicted advantage in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
State PVI Incumbent Last
race 		Cook
October 23,
2023[3] 		IE
September 1,
2023[4] 		Sabato
October 16,
2023[5] 		ED
November 7,
2023[6] 		Result
Kentucky R+16 Andy Beshear 49.2% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Beshear
52.5% D
Louisiana R+12 John Bel Edwards
(term-limited) 		51.3% D Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Landry
51.6% R (flip)
Mississippi R+11 Tate Reeves 51.9% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Reeves
50.9% R

Race summary

[edit]
State Incumbent Party First elected Result General election
Kentucky Andy Beshear Democratic 2019 Incumbent re-elected.
Louisiana John Bel Edwards Democratic 2015 Incumbent term-limited.
Republican gain.
Others
  • ▌Hunter Lundy (Independent) 4.9%
  • ▌Danny Cole (Democratic) 2.6%
  • ▌Sharon Hewitt (Republican) 1.7%
  • ▌Benjamin Barnes (Independent) 0.5%
  • ▌Patrick "Dat" Barthel (Republican) 0.4%
  • ▌Richard Nelson (Republican) 0.3%
  • ▌Jeffrey Istre (Independent) 0.3%
  • ▌Xavier Ellis (Republican) 0.2%
  • ▌Keitron Gagnon (Independent) 0.1%
  • ▌Xan John (Republican) 0.1%
  • ▌Frank Scurlock (Independent) 0.1%
Mississippi Tate Reeves Republican 2019 Incumbent re-elected.

Closest states

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States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:

  1. Mississippi, 3.24%

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%:

  1. Kentucky, 5.07%

Red denotes states won by Republicans. Blue denotes states won by Democrats.

Kentucky

[edit]
Kentucky gubernatorial election
← 2019
2027 →
Turnout38.0% Decrease
 
Nominee Andy Beshear Daniel Cameron
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Robby Mills
Popular vote 694,482 627,457
Percentage 52.5% 47.5%
Beshear:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Cameron:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Andy Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Andy Beshear
Democratic

Main article: 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election

Governor Andy Beshear was elected in 2019 with 49.2% of the vote and ran for re-election to a second term.[7] He won the Democratic nomination with little opposition & won the general election.

Attorney general Daniel Cameron, former US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft, state auditor Mike Harmon, and agriculture commissioner Ryan Quarles all ran for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.[7] Cameron was supported by former president Donald Trump, and led every poll leading to the primary, with Craft and Quarles trailing behind him.[8] Cameron won the Republican nomination, becoming the first African American major party gubernatorial nominee in Kentucky's history.[9]

Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Beshear (incumbent) 176,589 91.3
Democratic Geoff Young 9,865 5.1
Democratic Peppy Martin 6,913 3.6
Total votes 193,367 100.0
Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Daniel Cameron 144,576 47.7
Republican Ryan Quarles 65,718 21.7
Republican Kelly Craft 52,170 17.2
Republican Eric Deters 17,464 5.8
Republican Mike Harmon 7,797 2.6
Republican Alan Keck 7,317 2.4
Republican David Cooper 2,282 0.8
Republican Jacob Clark 1,900 0.6
Republican Robbie Smith 1,388 0.5
Republican Bob DeVore 931 0.3
Republican Johnny Rice 726 0.2
Republican Dennis Ormerod 696 0.2
Total votes 302,965 100.0
2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
694,482 52.53 +3.33
Republican
627,457 47.46 −1.37
Write-in 82 0.01 N/A
Total votes 1,322,021 100.00
Democratic hold

Louisiana

[edit]
Main article: 2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
← 2019 October 14, 2023 2027 →
Turnout36.3% Decrease
 
Candidate Jeff Landry Shawn Wilson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 547,827 275,525
Percentage 51.6% 25.9%
 
Candidate Stephen Waguespack John Schroder
Party Republican Republican
Popular vote 62,287 56,654
Percentage 5.9% 5.3%
Landry:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Wilson:      40–50%      70–80%
Governor before election

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jeff Landry
Republican

Governor John Bel Edwards was re-elected to a second term in 2019 with 51.3% of the vote. He was term-limited by the Louisiana Constitution in 2023, and could not seek reelection for a third consecutive term.

Louisiana utilizes a jungle primary system. Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry was considered the frontrunner. Other candidates included state senator Sharon Hewitt, and Treasurer John Schroder. Democratic Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson also ran to succeed Edwards.[11][12]

Landry won with over 51% of the vote in the primary, becoming the first person to win a Louisiana gubernatorial election without a runoff since Bobby Jindal in 2011. Landry easily prevailed over several Republican opponents and the leading Democratic candidate.[13]

2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Landry 547,827 51.56%
Democratic Shawn Wilson 275,525 25.93%
Republican Stephen Waguespack 62,287 5.86%
Republican John Schroder 56,654 5.33%
Independent Hunter Lundy 52,165 4.91%
Democratic Danny Cole 27,662 2.60%
Republican Sharon Hewitt 18,468 1.74%
Independent Benjamin Barnes 5,190 0.49%
Republican Dat Barthel 4,426 0.42%
Republican Richard Nelson (withdrawn) 3,605 0.34%
Independent Jeffery Istre 3,400 0.32%
Republican Xavier Ellis 1,734 0.16%
Independent Keitron Gagnon 1,260 0.12%
Republican Xan John 1,164 0.11%
Independent Frank Scurlock 1,131 0.11%
Total votes 1,062,498 100.00%
Republican gain from Democratic

Mississippi

[edit]
Mississippi gubernatorial election
← 2019
2027 →
Turnout42.6%
 
Nominee Tate Reeves Brandon Presley
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 418,233 391,614
Percentage 50.9% 47.7%
Reeves:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Presley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Governor before election

Tate Reeves
Republican

Elected Governor

Tate Reeves
Republican

Main article: 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election

Governor Tate Reeves was elected in 2019 with 51.9% of the vote and ran for re-election to a second term.[15]

Democrat Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner for the Northern District, was the Democratic nominee to challenge Reeves.[16]

Reeves won re-election.

Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tate Reeves (incumbent) 281,213 74.7
Republican John Witcher 66,698 17.7
Republican David Grady Hardigree 28,561 7.6
Total votes 376,472 100.0
Democratic primary results[18]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Brandon Presley 196,307 100.0
Total votes 196,307 100.0
2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election[19][20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Tate Reeves (incumbent) 418,233 50.94 –0.97
Democratic Brandon Presley 391,614 47.70 +0.87
Independent Gwendolyn Gray (withdrawn) 11,153 1.36 N/A
Total votes 821,000 100.00
Republican hold

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Vakil, Caroline (2023-01-02). "Here are the governors' races to watch in 2023". The Hill. Retrieved 2024-01-05.
  2. ^ Jacobson, Louis (June 8, 2023). "Democrats Face Uphill Challenge in Three Off-Year Races for Governor". US News & World Report. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  3. ^ "2024 CPR Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2023-07-23.
  4. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2023-07-23.
  5. ^ "2024 Governor – Sabato's Crystal Ball". Retrieved 2023-07-23.
  6. ^ Cunningham, Eric (2023-11-07). "Final 2023 Gubernatorial Ratings: Kentucky Moves to Leans Democratic, Mississippi is Likely Republican". Elections Daily. Retrieved 2023-11-07.
  7. ^ a b "Election Candidate Filings - Governor". web.sos.ky.gov. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  8. ^ "Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
  9. ^ "Daniel Cameron wins Republican primary for Kentucky governor". CBS News. May 16, 2023. Retrieved May 17, 2023.
  10. ^ a b "May 16, 2023 Official 2023 Primary Election Results" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 30, 2023. Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  11. ^ Karlin, Sam (9 January 2023). "Billy Nungesser to announce he's not running for governor, will seek re-election". The Advocate. Retrieved 11 January 2023.
  12. ^ Doyle, Matt (November 19, 2019). "2023 Governor's race could be packed with GOP heavy hitters". Louisiana Radio Network. Louisiana Farm Bureau Federation. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  13. ^ Montellaro, Zach (October 14, 2023). "Landry wins Louisiana governor's race, flipping state red". Politico. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
  14. ^ "Official Results for Election Date: 10/14/2023 Governor".
  15. ^ Reily, Ross (January 3, 2023). "Mississippi Republican Gov. Tate Reeves files for reelection bid". Clarion Ledger.
  16. ^ Hernandez, Rachel (2023-01-12). "Brandon Presley joins race for Mississippi governor". WKRG. Retrieved 2023-01-12.
  17. ^ "2023 Republican primary results". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  18. ^ "2023 Democratic primary results". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  19. ^ "Mississippi Governor Election Results". The New York Times. 7 November 2023. Retrieved November 14, 2023.
  20. ^ "Mississippi Governor". CNN. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
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