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Extreme event attribution

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The ability to determine the influence of global warming on a specific extreme event (vertical axis) depends on the level of scientific knowledge about how global warming affects that type of event.[1] More generally, this knowledge depends on the thoroughness of the records for each type of event, and on the quality of scientific models for simulating respective types of events.[1]

Extreme event attribution, also known as attribution science, is the identification and quantification of the role that human-caused climate change plays in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.[2][3] Attribution science aims to determine the degree to which such events can be explained by or linked to human-caused global warming and are not simply due to natural variability.[4]

History

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Attribution science was first mentioned in a 2011 "State of the Climate" published by the American Meteorological Society which stated that climate change is linked to six extreme weather events that were studied.[5]

Purpose, methods and findings

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German climatologist Friederike Otto posited that attribution science aims to answer the question, "did climate change play a role" in specific extreme events "within the news time frame – so within two weeks of the event".[6]

Attribution studies generally proceed in four steps: (1) measuring the magnitude and frequency of a given event based on observed data, (2) running computer models to compare with and verify observation data, (3) running the same models on a baseline "Earth" with no climate change, and (4) using statistics to analyze the differences between the second and third steps, thereby measuring the direct effect of climate change on the studied event.[4][6]

Heatwaves are the easiest weather events to attribute.[4] Understanding the relevant drivers and their model representation, such as the atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric and soil moisture, and surface cover, will be essential ways to improve heatwave prediction and projection.[7]

Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events differently, for example the 2010 Russia heat wave was made far more likely but not more intense.[4]

Applications and implications

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Climate Central applied a hurricane attribution framework from an Environmental Research: Climate paper to conclude that climate change's increase of water temperatures intensified peak wind speeds in all eleven 2024 Atlantic hurricanes.[8]
Scientists in the field of extreme event attribution have concluded that in virtually all countries and territories around the world in a one-year period beginning in May 2024, human-caused global warming has increased the number of days of extreme heat events over long-term norms.[9]

Attribution science may affect climate change litigation, perhaps by increasing lawsuits against companies for causing and governments for not addressing climate change.[10][11]

Examples

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  • A review summarized confidence, probabilities and costs-severities – such as economic costs, financial costs and number of early losses of life – of links to climate change and identified potential ways for the improvement of the field such as "improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts."[12][13]
A house in Australia that was destroyed by wildfires
  • Scientists of the international World Weather Attribution project publicized a study that found that human-caused climate change had an influence on the 2019–20 Australian wildfires by causing high-risk conditions that made widespread burning at least 30 percent more likely. They comment on the results, stating that climate change probably had more effects on the fires which couldn't be attributed using their climate simulations and that not all drivers of the fires showed imprints of anthropogenic climate change.[14][15]
  • The World Weather Attribution initiative has attributed the 2021 Western North America heat wave to climate change.[16]
  • The Climate Attribution Database contains scientific resources organized by theme.[17]
  • A study of 2020 storms of at least tropical storm-strength published in Nature Communications concluded that human-induced climate change increased extreme 3-hourly storm rainfall rates by 10%, and extreme 3-day accumulated rainfall amounts by 5%.[18] For hurricane-strength storms, the figures increased to 11% and 8%.[18]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Lindsey, Rebecca (15 December 2016). "Extreme event attribution: the climate versus weather blame game". Climate.gov. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Archived from the original on 9 June 2024. Graphic adapted from Figure 4.7 in NAS 2016.
  2. ^ NASEM (2016). Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-38094-2. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  3. ^ "The Science Connecting Extreme Weather to Climate Change". Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  4. ^ a b c d Zeng, Zubin (25 August 2021). "Is climate change to blame for extreme weather events? Attribution science says yes, for some – here's how it works". The Conversation. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  5. ^ Hu, Jane (19 December 2019). "The Decade of Attribution Science". Slate. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  6. ^ a b Sneed, Annie (2 January 2017). "Yes, Some Extreme Weather Can Be Blamed on Climate Change". Scientific American. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  7. ^ Domeisen, D. I. V., Eltahir, E. A. B., Fischer, E. M., Knutti, R., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Schär, C., Seneviratne, S. I., Weisheimer, A., & Wernli, H. (2023). Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nature Reviews. Earth & Environment, 4(1), 36–50. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z
  8. ^ ● Gilford, Daniel M.; Giguere, Joseph; Pershing, Andrew J. (20 November 2024). "Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes". Environmental Research: Climate. 3 (4). doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad8d02.
    ● Explained in "Climate change increased wind speeds for every 2024 Atlantic hurricane: Analysis" (PDF). Climate Central. 20 November 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 November 2024.
  9. ^ Giguere, Otto; Tanenenbaum, Vahlbert (30 May 2025). "Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks" (PDF). Climate Central, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, and World Weather Attribution. Archived (PDF) from the original on 31 May 2025. Click on "Download the data", and in spreadsheet choose "Countries and territories" tab at bottom to view raw data.
  10. ^ Harvey, Chelsea (2 January 2018). "Scientists Can Now Blame Individual Natural Disasters on Climate Change". Scientific American. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
  11. ^ Schiermeier, Quirin (2021-09-08). "Climate science is supporting lawsuits that could help save the world". Nature. 597 (7875): 169–171. Bibcode:2021Natur.597..169S. doi:10.1038/d41586-021-02424-7. PMID 34497398. S2CID 237452741.
  12. ^ "Climate change is driving 2022 extreme heat and flooding". Thomson Reuters Foundation. Retrieved 19 July 2022.
  13. ^ Clarke, Ben; Otto, Friederike; Stuart-Smith, Rupert; Harrington, Luke (28 June 2022). "Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective". Environmental Research: Climate. 1 (1): 012001. doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d. hdl:10044/1/97290. S2CID 250134589.
  14. ^ Fountain, Henry (4 March 2020). "Climate Change Affected Australia's Wildfires, Scientists Confirm". The New York Times. Retrieved 6 April 2020.
  15. ^ Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Krikken, Folmer; Lewis, Sophie; Leach, Nicholas J.; Lehner, Flavio; Saunders, Kate R.; Weele, Michiel van; Haustein, Karsten; Li, Sihan; Wallom, David; Sparrow, Sarah; Arrighi, Julie; Singh, Roop P.; Aalst, Maarten K. van; Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Vautard, Robert; Otto, Friederike E. L. (11 March 2020). "Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions: 1–46. doi:10.5194/nhess-2020-69. hdl:20.500.11850/475524.
  16. ^ "Extreme weather: How is it connected to climate change?". BBC News. 2021-08-09. Retrieved 2021-09-03.
  17. ^ Cho, Renee. "Attribution science: Linking climate change to extreme weather". phys.org. Columbia University. Retrieved 6 August 2022.
  18. ^ a b Reed, Kevin A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zarzycki, Colin M. (12 April 2022). "Attribution of 2020 hurricane season extreme rainfall to human-induced climate change". Nature Communications. 13 (1905): 1905. Bibcode:2022NatCo..13.1905R. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29379-1. PMC 9005694. PMID 35414063.
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