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2016 United States presidential election in Florida

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in Florida
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout74.48%[2] Increase 2.94 pp
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 4,617,886 4,504,975
Percentage 49.02% 47.82%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color[3]
Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Florida voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence, against the Democratic nominee, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Florida had 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

Trump carried the state with a plurality of 49.0% of the popular vote, which included a 1.2% winning margin over Clinton, who had 47.8% of the vote. Trump consequently became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Hillsborough County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Trump was also the first Republican presidential candidate to carry St. Lucie County since 1992, and the first to carry Jefferson and Monroe Counties since 1988; all three of these counties were last carried by George H. W. Bush.

Florida voted for Donald Trump by a margin of 1.19%.[5] It was the fifth-closest state result, with only Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania closer. According to the National Election Pool, Trump got a majority of 54% from the Cuban-American voters in the state—in comparison to the 71% of Clinton support by Latino voters from other origins.[6] This is also the closest election contested by any of Trump's three Democratic opponents in his presidential bids, as the Florida electorate has decisively swung to the right in the Trump political era; relatedly, this would be the last time Trump ran for president as a resident of another state (New York) rather than of Florida.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2016 Florida Democratic presidential primary

Democratic debate

[edit]

March 9, 2016 – Kendall, Florida

Candidate Airtime Polls[7]
Clinton 23:29 51.0%
Sanders 17:51 39.6%

The eighth debate took place on March 9, 2016, at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard Time in Building 7 of the Kendall Campus of Miami Dade College in Kendall, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.[8][9] The debate was discussed during a job interview conducted in early 2015 between the Democratic National Committee's then-Communications Director Mo Elleithee and future Hispanic Media Director Pablo Manriquez. After starting at the DNC in April 2015, Manriquez "talked about the idea for a debate for Democratic candidates on Univision to anyone who had ears to listen."[10] The debate was officially announced on November 2, 2015.[11]

Opinion polling

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries § Florida

Results

[edit]
Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

e • d 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Florida
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 1,101,414 64.44% 141 24 165
Bernie Sanders 568,839 33.28% 73 2 75
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 38,930 2.28%
Uncommitted — 0 6 6
Total 1,709,183 100% 214 32 246
Source: [12][13]
Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 3 26987 18497 45484 2 1
2 6 50190 34073 84263 4 2
3 4 32070 27974 60044 2 2
4 4 33920 22765 56685 2 2
5 6 55855 18639 74494 4 2
6 5 37995 24443 62438 3 2
7 5 37410 26795 64205 3 2
8 5 39384 24376 63760 3 2
9 5 40609 19880 60489 3 2
10 5 38011 22213 60224 3 2
11 5 38061 21590 59651 3 2
12 5 35498 23172 58670 3 2
13 6 44121 29707 73828 4 2
14 6 49146 23617 72763 4 2
15 5 32793 20712 53505 3 2
16 6 43921 25856 69777 4 2
17 4 29899 17045 46944 3 1
18 6 42804 20620 63424 4 2
19 4 31958 17235 49193 3 1
20 7 61998 15761 77759 6 1
21 7 57723 22100 79823 5 2
22 6 49602 22209 71811 4 2
23 6 44510 19974 64484 4 2
24 8 59274 13893 73167 6 2
25 3 24897 9287 34184 2 1
26 4 32069 14148 46217 3 1
27 4 30709 12258 42967 3 1
Total 140 1101414 568839 1670253 93 47
PLEO 28 1101414 568839 1670253 18 10
At Large 46 1101414 568839 1670253 30 16
Gr. Total 214 1101414 568839 1670253 141 73
Total vote 64.44% 33.28% 1,709,183
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2016 Florida Republican presidential primary

Republican debate

[edit]

March 10, 2016 – Coral Gables, Florida

Candidate Airtime Polls[14]
Trump 28:11 38.6%
Cruz 21:42 21.8%
Rubio 21:23 18.0%
Kasich 18:49 12.0%

The twelfth debate was the fourth and final debate to air on CNN and led into the Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, Missouri, and Ohio primaries on March 15. The candidates debated at the University of Miami, moderated by Jake Tapper and questioned by CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash, Salem Radio Network talk-show host Hugh Hewitt, and Washington Times contributor Stephen Dinan. The Washington Times cohosted the debate.[15] The debate was originally scheduled considering the likelihood that no candidate would clinch the Republican nomination before March 15, due to the overall size of the field.[16] On the day of the debate, CNN summarized the immediate stakes: "This debate comes just five days ahead of 'Super Tuesday 3', when more than 350 delegates are decided, including winner-take-all contests in Florida and Ohio. Both Trump and Rubio are predicting [a win in] Florida. For Trump, a win here would fuel his growing momentum and further grow his delegate lead; for Rubio, losing his home state could be the death knell for his campaign."[17] This was the twelfth and final debate appearance of Rubio, who suspended his campaign on March 15.[18]

Polling

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries § Florida

Results

[edit]
Election results by county.
  Donald Trump
  Marco Rubio

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Florida Republican primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 1,079,870 45.72% 99 0 99
Marco Rubio 638,661 27.04% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 404,891 17.14% 0 0 0
John Kasich 159,976 6.77% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 43,511 1.84% 0 0 0
Ben Carson (withdrawn) 21,207 0.90% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 4,450 0.19% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 2,624 0.11% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 2,493 0.11% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 1,899 0.08% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 1,211 0.05% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 693 0.03% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) 319 0.01% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 2,361,805 100.00% 99 0 99
Source: The Green Papers

.

Green primary

[edit]

The Green Party held a primary in Florida on July 31, 2016. Early voting began on July 25.[19]

On July 31, 2016, the Green Party of Florida announced that Jill Stein had won the Florida primary via instant-runoff voting.

Green Party of Florida primary – first round
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 18 52.9%
Elijah Manley 14 41.2%
William Kreml 1 2.94%
Kent Mesplay 1 2.94%
Sedinam Curry 0
Darryl Cherney 0
Total 34 100%
Green Party of Florida primary – second round
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 19 55.9%
Elijah Manley 14 41.2%
William Kreml 1 2.94%
Total 34 100
Green Party of Florida primary – third round
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Jill Stein 20 58.8% 15
Elijah Manley 14 41.2% 10
Total 34 100 25

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Florida as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[20] Lean D November 6, 2016
CNN[21] Tossup November 4, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[22] Tilt D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Lean D November 7, 2016
NBC[24] Tossup November 8, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[25] Tossup November 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics[26] Tossup November 8, 2016
Fox News[27] Tossup November 7, 2016
ABC[28] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
See also: Opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election in Florida

In early polling conducted in late 2015, Trump started with strong momentum and won almost every poll against Clinton by margins varying from 2 to 8 points. In March 2016, Trump's early momentum seemed to slow, as Clinton won every poll until June 2016, when Trump won a poll 45% to 44%. Most polling conducted throughout the summer was favorable to Clinton, but both candidates were neck and neck in late August and early September, with neither having a consistent lead. From mid September to October 20, Clinton won every poll but one. In the last weeks, polling was extremely close, with neither candidate taking the lead. The third to last and fourth to last poll ended in a tie, but Trump won the last poll 50% to 46%.[29] The average of the last three polls showed Trump ahead 47.3% to 46.7%, where the race was essentially tied.

Results

[edit]
2016 United States presidential election in Florida[30]
Party Presidential candidate Popular vote Electoral vote
Count Percentage
Republican Donald Trump 4,617,886 49.02% 29
Democratic Hillary Clinton 4,504,975 47.82% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson 207,043 2.20% 0
Green Jill Stein 64,399 0.68% 0
Constitution Darrell L. Castle 16,475 0.17% 0
Reform Rocky De La Fuente 9,108 0.10% 0
Write-in
-
 153 0.01% 0
Date November 8, 2016 Total voters Registered: 12,863,773
Eligible: 14,441,877
Turnout % Registered: 74.48%
VAP: 66.34% 		Turnout votes Valid votes: 9,420,039
Invalid votes: 160,450


By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Various candidates
Write-ins 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Alachua 46,834 36.00% 75,820 58.28% 7,446 5.72% -28,986 -22.28% 130,100
Baker 10,294 81.02% 2,112 16.62% 299 2.36% 8,182 64.40% 12,705
Bay 62,194 70.50% 21,797 24.71% 4,231 4.79% 40,397 45.79% 88,222
Bradford 8,913 73.31% 2,924 24.05% 321 2.64% 5,989 49.26% 12,158
Brevard 181,848 57.16% 119,679 37.62% 16,614 5.22% 62,169 19.54% 318,141
Broward 260,951 31.16% 553,320 66.08% 23,117 2.76% -292,369 -34.92% 837,388
Calhoun 4,655 75.96% 1,241 20.25% 232 3.79% 3,414 55.71% 6,128
Charlotte 60,128 61.96% 33,445 34.41% 3,524 3.63% 26,773 27.55% 97,187
Citrus 54,456 67.72% 22,789 28.34% 3,167 3.94% 31,667 39.38% 80,412
Clay 74,963 69.85% 27,822 25.93% 4,532 4.22% 47,141 43.92% 107,317
Collier 105,423 61.11% 61,085 35.41% 6,002 3.48% 44,338 25.70% 172,510
Columbia 20,368 70.57% 7,601 26.33% 895 3.10% 12,767 44.24% 28,864
DeSoto 6,778 62.17% 3,781 34.68% 344 3.15% 2,997 27.49% 10,903
Dixie 5,822 80.35% 1,270 17.53% 154 2.12% 4,552 62.82% 7,246
Duval 211,672 48.48% 205,704 47.12% 19,197 4.40% 5,968 1.36% 436,573
Escambia 88,808 57.60% 57,461 37.27% 7,903 5.13% 31,347 20.33% 154,172
Flagler 33,850 58.38% 22,026 37.98% 2,111 3.64% 11,824 20.40% 57,987
Franklin 4,125 68.08% 1,744 28.78% 190 3.14% 2,381 39.30% 6,059
Gadsden 6,728 30.29% 15,020 67.62% 466 2.09% -8,292 -37.33% 22,214
Gilchrist 6,740 79.56% 1,458 17.21% 274 3.23% 5,282 62.35% 8,472
Glades 2,996 68.37% 1,271 29.01% 115 2.62% 1,725 39.36% 4,382
Gulf 5,329 72.69% 1,720 23.46% 282 3.85% 3,609 49.23% 7,331
Hamilton 3,443 62.70% 1,904 34.67% 144 2.63% 1,539 28.03% 5,491
Hardee 5,242 68.57% 2,149 28.11% 254 3.32% 3,093 40.46% 7,645
Hendry 6,195 55.40% 4,615 41.27% 372 3.33% 1,580 14.13% 11,182
Hernando 58,970 62.30% 31,795 33.59% 3,886 4.11% 27,175 28.71% 94,651
Highlands 29,565 64.26% 14,937 32.46% 1,509 3.28% 14,628 31.80% 46,011
Hillsborough 266,870 44.19% 307,896 50.99% 29,124 4.82% -41,026 -6.80% 603,890
Holmes 7,483 87.46% 853 9.97% 220 2.57% 6,630 77.49% 8,556
Indian River 48,620 60.20% 29,043 35.96% 3,106 3.84% 19,577 24.24% 80,769
Jackson 14,257 67.38% 6,397 30.23% 505 2.39% 7,860 37.15% 21,159
Jefferson 3,930 51.11% 3,541 46.05% 218 2.84% 389 5.06% 7,689
Lafayette 2,809 82.35% 518 15.19% 84 2.46% 2,291 67.16% 3,411
Lake 102,188 59.48% 62,838 36.58% 6,773 3.94% 39,350 22.90% 171,799
Lee 191,551 58.12% 124,908 37.90% 13,095 3.98% 66,643 20.22% 329,554
Leon 53,821 34.98% 92,068 59.83% 7,992 5.19% -38,247 -24.85% 153,881
Levy 13,775 70.64% 5,101 26.16% 623 3.20% 8,674 44.48% 19,499
Liberty 2,543 76.78% 651 19.66% 118 3.56% 1,892 57.12% 3,312
Madison 4,851 56.80% 3,526 41.29% 163 1.91% 1,325 15.51% 8,540
Manatee 101,944 56.40% 71,224 39.40% 7,589 4.20% 30,720 17.00% 180,757
Marion 107,833 61.30% 62,041 35.27% 6,026 3.43% 45,792 26.03% 175,900
Martin 53,204 61.41% 30,185 34.84% 3,244 3.75% 23,019 26.57% 86,633
Miami-Dade 333,999 33.83% 624,146 63.22% 29,046 2.95% -290,147 -29.39% 987,191
Monroe 21,904 50.97% 18,971 44.14% 2,102 4.89% 2,933 6.83% 42,977
Nassau 34,266 72.92% 10,869 23.13% 1,857 3.95% 23,397 49.79% 46,992
Okaloosa 71,893 70.42% 23,780 23.29% 6,423 6.29% 48,113 47.13% 102,096
Okeechobee 9,356 67.99% 3,959 28.77% 446 3.24% 5,397 39.22% 13,761
Orange 195,216 35.37% 329,894 59.77% 26,792 4.86% -134,678 -24.40% 511,902
Osceola 50,301 35.56% 85,458 60.41% 5,709 4.03% -35,157 -24.85% 141,468
Palm Beach 272,402 40.89% 374,673 56.24% 19,137 2.87% -102,271 -15.35% 666,212
Pasco 142,101 58.41% 90,142 37.06% 11,022 4.53% 51,959 21.35% 243,265
Pinellas 239,201 48.08% 233,701 46.98% 24,583 4.94% 5,500 1.10% 497,485
Polk 157,430 54.86% 117,433 40.92% 12,106 4.22% 39,997 13.94% 286,969
Putnam 22,138 66.48% 10,094 30.31% 1,069 3.21% 12,044 36.17% 33,301
St. Johns 88,684 64.34% 43,099 31.27% 6,063 4.39% 45,585 33.07% 137,846
St. Lucie 70,289 49.50% 66,881 47.10% 4,823 3.40% 3,408 2.40% 141,993
Santa Rosa 65,339 73.68% 18,464 20.82% 4,881 5.50% 46,875 52.86% 88,684
Sarasota 124,438 53.79% 97,870 42.30% 9,045 3.91% 26,568 11.49% 231,353
Seminole 109,443 48.10% 105,914 46.55% 12,169 5.35% 3,529 1.55% 227,526
Sumter 52,730 68.27% 22,638 29.31% 1,870 2.42% 30,092 38.96% 77,238
Suwannee 14,287 76.05% 3,964 21.10% 536 2.85% 10,323 54.95% 18,787
Taylor 6,930 74.13% 2,152 23.02% 266 2.85% 4,778 51.11% 9,348
Union 4,568 79.83% 1,014 17.72% 140 2.45% 3,554 62.11% 5,722
Volusia 143,007 54.32% 109,091 41.44% 11,180 4.24% 33,916 12.88% 263,278
Wakulla 10,512 68.07% 4,348 28.15% 584 3.78% 6,164 39.92% 15,444
Walton 25,756 75.98% 6,876 20.28% 1,266 3.74% 18,880 55.70% 33,898
Washington 8,637 77.04% 2,264 20.19% 310 2.77% 6,373 56.85% 11,211
Totals 4,617,886 48.60% 4,504,975 47.41% 379,886 3.99% 112,911 1.19% 9,502,747

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 14 of 27 congressional districts, while Clinton won 13, including two held by Republicans.[31]

District Trump Clinton Representative
1st 68% 28% Jeff Miller
Matt Gaetz
2nd 66% 31% Gwen Graham
Neal Dunn
3rd 56% 40% Ted Yoho
4th 62% 34% Ander Crenshaw
John Rutherford
5th 36% 61% Corrine Brown
Al Lawson
6th 57% 40% Ron DeSantis
7th 44% 51% John Mica
Stephanie Murphy
8th 58% 38% Bill Posey
9th 42% 55% Alan Grayson
Darren Soto
10th 35% 62% Daniel Webster
Val Demings
11th 65% 33% Rich Nugent
Daniel Webster
12th 57% 39% Gus Bilirakis
13th 46% 50% David Jolly
Charlie Crist
14th 39% 57% Kathy Castor
15th 53% 43% Dennis Ross
16th 54% 43% Vern Buchanan
17th 62% 35% Tom Rooney
18th 53% 44% Patrick Murphy
Brian Mast
19th 60% 38% Curt Clawson
Francis Rooney
20th 18% 80% Alcee Hastings
21st 39% 59% Lois Frankel
22nd 41% 57% Ted Deutch
23rd 36% 62% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th 16% 81% Frederica Wilson
25th 50% 48% Mario Díaz-Balart
26th 41% 57% Carlos Curbelo
27th 39% 59% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Brill, Sanford. "Florida Department of State - Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com.
  2. ^ "Voter Turnout - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". dos.myflorida.com.
  3. ^ 2016 General Election November 8, 2016. Official Election Results. Florida Department of State, Division of Elections.
  4. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
  5. ^ "Florida Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  6. ^ Unlike other Latinos, about half of Cuban voters in Florida backed Trump, Pew Research Center, November 15, 2016.
  7. ^ RealClearPolitics.com"
  8. ^ "Miami Dade College To Host Democratic Presidential Debate". wlrn.org. November 2, 2015. Retrieved January 8, 2016.
  9. ^ "DNC/Florida Democratic Party Primary Debate Hosted by Univision News and The Washington Post to Take Place at the Nation's Largest and Most Diverse College, Miami Dade College, on March 9, 2016 - Univision". Univision. Archived from the original on February 2, 2016. Retrieved January 8, 2016.
  10. ^ Avendaño, Alberto (December 18, 2015). "Él impulsa el debate hispano entre los precandidatos demócratas". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 8, 2016.
  11. ^ "Univision/Washington Post Democratic debate to be held March 9". POLITICO. Retrieved January 8, 2016.
  12. ^ The Green Papers
  13. ^ Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results
  14. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - 2016 Republican Presidential Nomination".
  15. ^ Wemple, Erik (January 20, 2016). "CNN partnering with the Washington Times for March 10 debate in Miami". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved February 13, 2016.
  16. ^ "CNN announces March debate in Florida". Politico. Retrieved January 18, 2016.
  17. ^ "Republican Debate in Miami: What to Watch". CNN.com. March 10, 2016.
  18. ^ Peters, Jeremy; Barbaro, Michael (March 15, 2016). "Marco Rubio Suspends His Presidential Campaign". The New York Times. Retrieved March 15, 2016.
  19. ^ "2016 Presidential Primary". Green Party of Florida. May 5, 2016. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
  20. ^ "Campaign 2016 updates: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton traverse the country in final push". Retrieved November 9, 2016 – via LA Times.
  21. ^ Chalian, David. "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  22. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  23. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  24. ^ "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  25. ^ "ElectoralVote". Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  26. ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  27. ^ "Fox News Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  28. ^ "The Final 15: Latest Polls in Swing States". ABC News. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  29. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Florida: Trump vs. Clinton".
  30. ^ "Florida Department of State - Election Results". Retrieved April 14, 2017.
  31. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". cookpolitical.com.

Further reading

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[edit]
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