2026 United States Senate election in Maine
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| Elections in Maine |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Maine will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maine. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is running for re-election to a sixth term in office. This will be the only Republican-held Senate seat up for election in 2026 in a state that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election. This election will coincide with U.S. House elections for Maine's two congressional districts, a gubernatorial election, and various other state, county and local elections.
Background
[edit]Maine is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Kamala Harris carrying Maine by roughly seven percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats also control the governorship, the state legislature, and both seats in Maine's U.S. House congressional delegation.[1]
Collins was first elected in 1996 and was re-elected in four subsequent elections, significantly outperforming other Republicans in the state. In 2020, despite almost all polls and analysts predicting that she would lose her re-election bid, Collins unexpectedly defeated Democratic nominee Sara Gideon by about eight percentage points. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden carried Maine by about nine percentage points on the same ballot.[2]
As the only Senate seat up held by a Republican in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and Collins' record of overperformance despite the state's Democratic lean, Maine is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026. This Senate seat has been held by Republicans since 1979. With the decline of ticket splitting and being in a midterm year with a Republican president, Collins is widely viewed as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent senator.[3][4] Collins is the only Republican senator from a state won by Harris in 2024.
Republican primary
[edit]Collins was first elected in 1996. With Collins being a moderate and potential swing vote, she could face a more conservative primary opponent.[5]
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Susan Collins, incumbent U.S. senator (1997–present)[6]
- Dan Smeriglio, former police officer[7]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Filed paperwork
[edit]- Natasha Alcala[8]
Publicly expressed interest
[edit]- Jared Golden, U.S. Representative from Maine's 2nd congressional district (2019–present) (currently running for re-election)[9]
Potential
[edit]- Troy Jackson, former President of the Maine Senate (2018–2024) from Aroostook County (2008–2014, 2016–2024)[4] (currently exploring a run for governor)[10]
- Janet Mills, Governor of Maine (2019–present)[11]
- Chellie Pingree, U.S. Representative from Maine's 1st congressional district (2009–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2002[4][12]
Independent and third party candidates
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Phillip Rench, outgoing member of the Maine Space Corporation Board of Directors (2023–2025)[13]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[14] | Battleground | Feb 20, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Lean R | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] | Lean R | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[17] | Tilt D (flip) | Apr 8, 2025 |
References
[edit]- ^ "Maine Democrats say they won enough seats to control state Senate". spectrumlocalnews.com. Retrieved December 7, 2024.
- ^ Everett, Burgess (November 4, 2020). "Collins wins again in Maine, boosting Senate GOP". POLITICO. Retrieved December 7, 2024.
- ^ Coleman, J. Miles (July 11, 2024). "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
- ^ a b c Stanton, Andrew (November 14, 2024). "Susan Collins' Reelection Plan Throws a Wrench in Democrats' Senate Hopes". Newsweek. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
- ^ Bolton, Alexander (November 14, 2024). "Tuberville: 'We're gonna try to get you out of the Senate if you vote against Trump". The Hill. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
- ^ Shepherd, Michael (November 15, 2024). "Susan Collins plans to run for historic 6th term in 2026". Piscataquis Observer. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
- ^ Collins, Steve (February 18, 2025). "A Frenchville Republican challenges Susan Collins". Sun Journal. Retrieved February 19, 2025.
- ^ Bartow, Adam (February 26, 2025). "Growing field: First Democrat files to challenge Sen. Susan Collins". WMTV. Retrieved February 26, 2025.
- ^ Solender, Andrew (April 10, 2025). "House leaders face growing horde of members grasping for higher office". Axios. Retrieved April 11, 2025.
Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) signaled he could run for Senate or governor, telling Axios he is 'running for reelection to my seat as far as I know, but I'll look at statewide offices. I'm not taking anything off the table.'
- ^ Shepherd, Michael; Kobin, Billy (March 7, 2025). "Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson explores a run for governor". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
- ^ Billings, Randy (November 29, 2024). "Gov. Mills doesn't rule out challenging Susan Collins for U.S. Senate in 2026". Press Herald. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
- ^ Solender, Andrew (November 27, 2024). "Scoop: A huge wave of House members is eyeing runs for other offices in 2026". Axios. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
- ^ Fahlberg, Audrey (March 7, 2025). "Ex-Democrat SpaceX Engineer Challenging Maine Senator Susan Collins as an Independent". National Review. Retrieved April 12, 2025.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
- ^ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites