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Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

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Opinion polling for UK general elections
2015 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2017 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2019 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
2024 election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval
Next election
Opinion polls • Leadership approval

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.

The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.

Graphical summary

[edit]

The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.

Most recent polling by pollster

[edit]

This section collates the most recent opinion poll released by each pollster.[1]

Pollster Dates
conducted 		Lab Con Ref LD Grn Lead
YouGov 9–10 Feb 2025 25% 21% 26% 14% 9% Ref +1 over Lab
Opinium 5–7 Feb 2025 27% 22% 26% 11% 8% Lab +1 over Ref
Techne 5–6 Feb 2025 25% 23% 25% 13% 7% Lab-Ref tie
Find Out Now 5 Feb 2025 25% 18% 29% 13% 10% Ref +4 over Lab
More In Common 31 Jan – 3 Feb 2025 24% 26% 24% 13% 6% Con +2 over Lab & Ref
BMG Research 28–29 Jan 2025 25% 25% 24% 14% 8% Lab-Con tie
Survation 28–29 Jan 2025 27% 22% 24% 13% 8% Lab +3 over Ref
Whitestone Insight 22–23 Jan 2025 25% 20% 24% 12% 13% Lab +1 over Ref
Deltapoll 17–20 Jan 2025 29% 25% 22% 11% 8% Lab +4 over Con
JL Partners 10–14 Jan 2025 26% 25% 22% 13% 9% Lab +1 over Con
Stonehaven 6–9 Dec 2024 28% 24% 21% 13% 8% Lab +4 over Con
We Think 7–8 Aug 2024 33% 20% 21% 11% 8% Lab +12 over Ref
General election (GB) 4 Jul 2024 34.7% 24.4% 14.7% 12.5% 6.9% Lab +10.3 over Con

National poll results

[edit]

Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.

2025

[edit]
For political events during the year, see 2025 in United Kingdom politics and government and 2025 in the United Kingdom.
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Area Sample
size 		Lab Con Ref LD Grn Others Lead
9–10 Feb YouGov[2] N/A GB 2,419 25% 21% 26% 14% 9%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 1
5–7 Feb Opinium[3] The Observer GB 1,493 27% 22% 26% 11% 8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 1
5–6 Feb Techne[4] N/A UK 1,645 25% 23% 25% 13% 7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
 Tie
5 Feb Find Out Now[5] N/A GB 2,487 25% 18% 29% 13% 10%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
2–3 Feb YouGov[6] Sky News[7] GB 2,465 24% 21% 25% 14% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 1
31 Jan – 3 Feb More in Common[8] N/A GB 2,044 24% 26% 24% 13% 6%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 2
29–30 Jan Techne[9] N/A UK 1,633 26% 23% 24% 12% 7%
8%
SNP on 3%
Other on 5%
 2
29 Jan Find Out Now[10] N/A GB 2,487 23% 21% 27% 11% 10%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 4
28–29 Jan BMG Research[11] The i GB 1,514 25% 25% 24% 14% 8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 Tie
28–29 Jan Survation[12] N/A UK 1,670 27% 22% 24% 13% 8%
7%
SNP on 3%
Other on 4%
 3
26–27 Jan YouGov[13] The Times GB 2,523 27% 22% 23% 14% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
24–27 Jan More in Common[14] N/A GB 2,009 25% 24% 25% 13% 7%
6%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 Tie
22–29 Jan Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus[15] (MRP) PLMR GB 5,743 23% 23% 24% 11% 8%
10%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 6%
 1
22–24 Jan Opinium[16] The Observer GB 2,050 28% 21% 27% 11% 8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 1
22–23 Jan Whitestone Insight[17] Daily Express GB 2,012 25% 20% 24% 12% 13%
6%
SNP on 3%
Other on 3%
 1
22–23 Jan Techne[18] N/A UK 1,643 25% 24% 24% 13% 7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
 1
22 Jan Find Out Now[19] N/A GB 2,380 22% 23% 26% 12% 10%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 3
19–20 Jan YouGov[20] The Times GB 2,466 26% 22% 24% 14% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 2
17–20 Jan More in Common[21] N/A GB 2,016 24% 25% 25% 12% 7%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 Tie
17–20 Jan Deltapoll[22] Institute for Government GB 1,500 29% 25% 22% 11% 8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Other on 2%
 4
15–16 Jan Techne[23] N/A UK 1,624 26% 25% 23% 12% 7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
 1
15 Jan Find Out Now[24] N/A GB 2,386 24% 25% 25% 12% 10%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 Tie
10–14 Jan JL Partners[25] The Sunday Times GB 2,007 26% 25% 22% 13% 9%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 1
12–13 Jan YouGov[26] The Times GB 2,279 26% 22% 25% 14% 8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 1
10–13 Jan More in Common[27] N/A GB 1,587 24% 25% 24% 12% 8%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 1
8–10 Jan Opinium[28] The Observer GB 2,050 29% 23% 24% 10% 9%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 5
8 Jan Find Out Now[29] N/A GB 2,076 25% 20% 25% 11% 11%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 Tie
6–8 Jan More in Common[30] N/A GB 2,011 26% 26% 22% 12% 7%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 Tie
30 Dec 2024 – 3 Jan 2025 Deltapoll[31] Mail on Sunday GB 1,532 30% 23% 22% 12% 9%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 7

2024

[edit]
For political events during the year, see 2024 in United Kingdom politics and government and 2024 in the United Kingdom.
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Area Sample
size 		Lab Con Ref LD Grn Others Lead
19–23 Dec Deltapoll[32] The Mirror GB 1,552 29% 25% 21% 12% 8%
5%
SNP on 4%
PC on 0%
Other on 1%
 4
18–20 Dec Opinium[33] The Observer GB 1,472 29% 23% 22% 11% 10%
7%
SNP on 3%
PC on 1%
Other on 2%
 6
18–19 Dec Techne[34] N/A UK 1,642 27% 26% 21% 12% 7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
 1
12–16 Dec Survation[35] N/A UK 2,030 30% 25% 20% 11% 7%
6%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 5
11–12 Dec Techne[36] N/A UK 1,634 27% 25% 22% 11% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 2
11 Dec Find Out Now[37] N/A GB 2,659 26% 23% 25% 11% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 1
6–10 Dec More in Common[38] N/A GB 2,432 26% 26% 19% 13% 8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
 Tie
6–9 Dec Stonehaven[39] (MRP) N/A GB 2,072 28% 24% 21% 13% 8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
 4
5–6 Dec Techne[40] N/A UK 1,644 27% 25% 21% 12% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 2
4 Dec Find Out Now[41] N/A GB 2,607 23% 26% 24% 11% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 2
29 Nov – 2 Dec More in Common[42] N/A GB 2,002 26% 28% 21% 13% 7%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 2
27–29 Nov Opinium[43] The Observer GB 2,050 29% 25% 21% 10% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
27–28 Nov Techne[44] N/A UK 1,648 28% 27% 18% 13% 6%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 1
27 Nov Find Out Now[45] N/A GB 2,316 25% 27% 22% 12% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 2
26–27 Nov BMG Research[46] The i GB 1,531 29% 27% 20% 12% 7%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 2%
 2
26–27 Nov More in Common[47] N/A GB 1,972 27% 30% 18% 12% 8%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 3
20–21 Nov Techne[48] N/A UK 1,632 29% 27% 17% 12% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 2
19–21 Nov More in Common[49] N/A GB 2,002 25% 28% 19% 13% 8%
7%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 3
14–18 Nov Deltapoll[50] N/A GB 1,749 29% 27% 18% 12% 8%
6%
SNP on 4%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 2
13–14 Nov JL Partners[51] The Sun / Politico GB 2,024 27% 26% 20% 12% 9%
6%
SNP on 3%
Other on 3%
 1
13–14 Nov Techne[52] N/A GB 1,643 28% 27% 17% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 1
11–13 Nov Opinium[53] The Observer GB 1,646 30% 24% 21% 12% 8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 6
8–11 Nov More in Common[54] N/A GB 2,007 27% 29% 19% 11% 8%
7%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
 2
6–7 Nov Techne[55] N/A UK 1,636 29% 25% 18% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 4
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
31 Oct – 16 Dec More in Common[56] (MRP) N/A GB 11,024 25% 26% 21% 14% 8%
6%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 1
30 Oct – 1 Nov More in Common[57] N/A GB 2,007 28% 26% 18% 14% 8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 3%
 2
30–31 Oct Opinium[58] The Observer GB 1,548 31% 24% 20% 10% 10%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 3%
 7
30–31 Oct BMG Research[59] The i GB 1,511 28% 29% 17% 13% 8%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 1
30–31 Oct Techne[60] N/A UK 1,632 30% 24% 18% 14% 7%
7%
SNP on 2%
Other on 5%
 6
23–24 Oct Techne[61] N/A UK 1,644 29% 24% 19% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 5
16–18 Oct Opinium[62] The Observer GB 1,565 31% 24% 20% 12% 8%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 7
16–17 Oct Techne[63] N/A UK 1,636 28% 25% 19% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 3
11–13 Oct JL Partners[64] The Telegraph GB 2,000 29% 25% 19% 14% 7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
9–10 Oct 7 Techne[65] N/A UK 1,651 29% 24% 19% 12% 7%
9%
SNP on 2%
Other on 7%
 5
9–10 Oct More in Common[66] The Times GB 2,000 27% 27% 21% 13% 7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 Tie
5–7 Oct More in Common[67] Politico GB 2,023 29% 28% 19% 11% 7%
5%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 3%
 1
4–7 Oct Deltapoll[68] N/A GB 2,108 29% 25% 18% 14% 8%
6%
SNP on 4%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 4
2–4 Oct Opinium[69] The Observer GB 1,491 31% 24% 20% 11% 8%
5%
SNP on 3%
Other on 2%
 7
2–3 Oct BMG Research[70] i GB 1,562 30% 25% 20% 13% 7%
4%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 0%
Other on 1%
 5
2–3 Oct Techne[71] N/A UK 1,643 31% 23% 18% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 8
25–26 Sep Techne[72] N/A UK 1,638 32% 22% 18% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 10
24–25 Sep More in Common[73] N/A GB 2,080 30% 26% 18% 13% 8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
18–19 Sep Techne[74] The Independent UK 1,641 33% 21% 18% 13% 7%
8%
SNP on 2%
Other on 6%
 12
10–12 Sep More in Common[75] Politico GB 1,542 29% 25% 18% 14% 8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 4%
 4
29 Aug BMG Research[76] i GB 1,560 30% 26% 19% 12% 8%
6%
SNP on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 2%
 4
7–8 Aug We Think[77] N/A GB 1,278 33% 20% 21% 11% 8%
8%
SNP on 3%
Independents on 3%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 12
5–7 Aug BMG Research[78] i GB 1,523 33% 24% 18% 12% 8% 4% 9
30 Jul – 5 Aug Stonehaven[79] N/A GB 2,048 34% 22% 17% 12% 9% 6% 12
25–26 Jul We Think[80] N/A GB 2,012 36% 22% 17% 11% 7%
7%
Independents on 3%
SNP on 2%
Plaid Cymru on 1%
Other on 1%
 14
11–12 Jul We Think[81] N/A GB 2,005 39% 20% 16% 11% 9% 5% 19
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK – 33.7% 23.7% 14.3% 12.2% 6.8% 9.3% 10.0
GB 34.7% 24.4% 14.7% 12.5% 6.9% 6.8% 10.3

Seat projections

[edit]

MRP polls

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Area Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid Others Majority
22 – 29 Jan 2025 Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[82] PLMR[83] 5,743 GB 174 178 57 37 175 4 2 5 Hung
(Con 148 short)
30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025 Focaldata[84] Hope not Hate[85] 17,790 GB 287 163 63 22 76 4 4 13 Hung
(Lab 39 short)
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024 More in Common[86] N/A 11,024 GB 228 222 58 37 72 2 4 26[a] Hung
(Lab 98 short)
6–9 Dec 2024 Stonehaven[87] N/A 2,072 GB 278 157 47 24 120 3 2 19[a] Hung
(Lab 48 short)
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK 411 121 72 9 5 4 4
23
Sinn Féin: 7
Independents: 6
DUP: 5
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
UUP: 1
TUV: 1
Speaker: 1
 Lab 174

POLARIS projections

[edit]

Political Analysis through Regional and Local Insights System (POLARIS) is a novel model created by J.L. Partners, using council by-elections to predict election outcomes.[88]

Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Area Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid Oth Majority
Through January 2025 J.L. Partners N/A 306,817[b] GB 200 190 70 42 102 7 4
34
Northern Irish seats: 18
Independents or Workers Party: 16
Speaker: 1

 Hung
(Lab 126 short)
Through December 2024 J.L. Partners N/A 280,000 GB 256 208 66 6 71 5 4
33
Northern Irish seats: 18
Independents or Workers Party: 15
Speaker: 1


 Hung
(Lab 70 short)
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – UK 411 121 72 9 5 4 4
23
Sinn Féin: 7
Independents: 6
DUP: 5
SDLP: 2
Alliance: 1
UUP: 1
TUV: 1
Speaker: 1
 Lab 174

Sub-national poll results

[edit]

Northern Ireland

[edit]
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Sinn Féin DUP Alliance UUP SDLP TUV Others Lead
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[89] – 27.0% 22.1% 15.0% 12.2% 11.1% 6.2% 6.4% 4.9

Scotland

[edit]
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland
Date(s)
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab SNP Con LD Ref Grn Others Lead
15–20 Jan 2025 Find Out Now Sunday National 1,334 18% 31% 12% 10% 17% 7% 5% 13
7–13 Jan 2025 Survation N/A 1,024 24% 33% 14% 9% 15% 4% 1% 9
17–24 Dec 2024 Find Out Now The National 1,774 20% 34% 14% 9% 15% 6% 2% 14
4–6 Dec 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,013 20% 31% 14% 9% 15% 6%
4%
Alba on 3%
Other on 1%
 11
1–15 Nov 2024 Survation Progress Scotland 3,016 28% 31% 15% 6% 13% 5%
3%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
 3
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,013 23% 30% 15% 10% 14% 6%
2%
Alba on 1%
Other on 1%
 7
27 Sep 2024 Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives
10–13 Sep 2024 Survation Progress Scotland 2,059 31% 31% 14% 9% 11% 3%
1%
Alba on 1%
Other on 0%
 Tie
5–11 Sep 2024 Opinium The Sunday Times 1,028 25% 32% 14% 8% 11% 7% 2% 7
20–22 Aug 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times 1,011 32% 29% 12% 8% 12% 5%
2%
Alba on 2%
Other on 1%
 3
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[90] – 35.3% 30.0% 12.7% 9.7% 7.0% 3.8% 1.6% 5.3

Wales

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Ref Pld LD Grn Oth Lead
3–5 Dec 2024 Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 Survation[91] Reform UK 2,006 33% 18% 21% 13% 9% 5% 0% 12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[92] – 37.0% 18.2% 16.9% 14.8% 6.5% 4.7% 1.9% 18.8

English mayoral regions

[edit]

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lab LD Ref Grn Others Lead
Nov–Dec 2024 Stonehaven PoliticsHome 6,500 28% 24% TBD TBD TBD TBD 4
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 30.1% 25.0% 22.0% 12.7% 6.6% 3.7% 5.1

Greater Lincolnshire

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lab Ref LD Grn Others Lead
Nov–Dec 2024 Stonehaven PoliticsHome 6,500 33% 24% 28% TBD TBD TBD 5
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[93] – 34.0% 29.1% 23.6% 5.1% 4.5% 3.6% 4.9

Hull and East Yorkshire

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con Ref LD Grn Others Lead
Nov–Dec 2024 Stonehaven PoliticsHome 6,500 30% 26% 30% TBD TBD TBD Tie
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election[93] – 37.7% 26.2% 21.9% 7.8% 4.7% 1.7% 11.5

London

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Lab Con LD Grn Ref Others Lead
30 Oct – 11 Nov 2024 Savanta N/A ? 36% 24% 12% 12% 13% 3% 12
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election – 43.0% 20.6% 11.0% 10.0% 8.7% 6.7% 22.7

100 most rural constituencies

[edit]

In November 2024, Survation conducted a survey of the 100 "most rural" constituencies.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Client Sample
size 		Con Lab LD Ref Grn Others Lead
14–21 Nov 2024 Survation[94] Country Land and Business Association 1,007 34% 21% 18% 21% 7% 0% 13
4 Jul 2024 2024 general election (Survation)[94] – 33.9% 23.6% 19.1% 16.1% 6.0% 1.4% 10.4

Approval polling

[edit]

Leadership approval

[edit]

Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
5–7 Feb 2025 Opinium 2,050 22% 56% –34 20% 35% –15 31% 38% –7 22% 21% +1 – –
28–29 Jan 2025 BMG Research 1,514 22% 55% –33 23% 23% 0 32% 35% –3 22% 18% +4 – –
28–29 Jan 2025 Survation 2,010 30% 49% –19 33% 31% +2 35% 42% –7 28% 25% +3 – –
24–27 Jan 2025 More in Common 2,009 16% 58% –42 16% 32% –16 27% 39% –12 15% 24% –9 – –
22–24 Jan 2025 Opinium 2,050 21% 55% –34 19% 34% –15 32% 39% –7 21% 21% 0 – –
17–20 Jan 2025 More in Common 2,016 20% 56% –36 16% 33% –17 27% 39% –12 15% 24% –9 – –
17–20 Jan 2025 Deltapoll 1,500 29% 64% –35 29% 45% –16 – – – –
10–13 Jan 2025 More in Common 2,102 19% 58% –39 14% 32% –18 25% 42% –17 – – –
8–10 Jan 2025 Opinium 2,050 22% 55% –33 21% 34% –13 30% 39% –9 22% 20% +2 – –
30 Dec – 3 Jan 2025 Deltapoll 1,532 26% 68% –42 25% 46% –21 – – – –
19–23 Dec 2024 Deltapoll 1,552 28% 64% –36 34% 38% –4 – – – –
18–20 Dec 2024 Opinium 2,010 22% 54% –32 21% 32% –12 29% 38% –9 23% 20% +3 – –
12–16 Dec 2024 Survation 2,030 35% 44% –9 36% 25% +11 37% 37% 0 29% 23% +6 – –
12–13 Dec 2024 YouGov 2,215 25% 66% –41 18% 49% –31 28% 62% –34 – – –
6–10 Dec 2024 More in Common 2,432 19% 55% –36 18% 27% –9 27% 38% –11 17% 25% –8 – –
27 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 Ipsos 1,028 27% 61% –34 19% 34% –15 – 30% 27% +3 – –
27–29 Nov 2024 Opinium 2,020 22% 54% –32 22% 28% –6 29% 38% –9 22% 21% +1 – –
26–27 Nov 2024 BMG Research 1,531 25% 53% –28 23% 16% +7 27% 34% –7 23% 18% +5 – –
26–27 Nov 2024 More in Common 1,749 24% 53% –29 20% 26% –6 25% 41% –16 – – –
14–18 Nov 2024 Deltapoll 1,749 29% 61% –32 24% 38% –14 – – – –
13–14 Nov 2024 JL Partners 2,024 25% 48% –23 22% 23% –1 31% 41% –10 20% 21% –1 12% 12% - 11% 10% +1
11–13 Nov 2024 Opinium 2,068 25% 50% –25 20% 25% –5 29% 37% –8 23% 19% +3 – –
8–11 Nov 2024 Ipsos 1,139 23% 52% –29 21% 39% –18 28% 48% –20 21% 31% –10 17% 26% –9 16% 26% –10
8–11 Nov 2024 More In Common 2,111 24% 48% –24 17% 19% –2 – 16% 21% –5 – –
8–10 Nov 2024 YouGov 2,099 28% 61% –33 21% 41% –20 30% 61% –31 24% 31% –7 7% 14% –7 4% 12% –8
2 Nov Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Ed Davey Carla Denyer Adrian Ramsay
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
30–31 Oct 2024 BMG Research 1,511 23% 49% –26 28% 33% –5 28% 35% –7 19% 19% - – –
30–31 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,016 26% 50% –24 23% 45% –22 28% 40% –12 23% 19% +4 – –
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta 2,135 30% 48% –18 28% 49% –21 31% 46% –14 22% 28% –5 15% 20% –5 13% 20% –7
16–18 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,007 21% 53% –32 20% 45% –25 25% 39% –14 22% 20% +2 – –
9–10 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,073 18% 56% –38 18% 49% –31 – – – –
5–7 Oct 2024 More In Common 2,023 21% 54% –33 19% 51% –32 – – – –
4–7 Oct 2024 Deltapoll 2,108 30% 61% –31 27% 65% –38 – – – –
4–6 Oct 2024 YouGov 2,121 27% 63% –36 24% 66% –42 28% 63% –35 25% 32% –7 – –
2–4 Oct 2024 Opinium 2,055 24% 52% –28 18% 47% –29 26% 42% –16 21% 21% - – –
2–3 Oct 2024 BMG Research 1,562 25% 50% –25 23% 41% –18 29% 32% –4 21% 20% +1 – –
25–27 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,003 23% 53% –30 20% 46% –26 29% 40% –11 22% 23% –1 – –
24–25 Sep 2024 More In Common 2,080 21% 48% –27 17% 52% –35 – – – –
20–22 Sep 2024 YouGov 2,137 30% 60% –30 24% 68% –44 28% 63% –35 27% 36% –9 – –
18–20 Sep 2024 Opinium 2,050 24% 50% –26 21% 46% –25 27% 39% –12 24% 21% +3 – –
9 Sep 2024 More In Common 2,024 25% 45% –20 – – – – –
29 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,560 28% 44% –16 22% 46% –24 28% 37% –9 19% 21% –2 – –
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common 2,015 27% 43% –16 17% 58% –41 – – – –
14–16 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,000 32% 38% –6 20% 50% –30 24% 43% –19 21% 21% - – –
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think 1,278 33% 42% –9 22% 57% –35 29% 44% –15 18% 36% –18 14% 28% –14 10% 26% –16
5–7 Aug 2024 BMG Research 1,523 30% 33% –3 19% 42% –23 23% 37% –14 21% 16% +5 – –
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov 2,163 37% 53% –16 23% 71% –48 25% 67% –42 – – –
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium 2,063 35% 32% +3 18% 48% –30 25% 40% –15 24% 19% +5 19% 17% +2 19% 17% +2
30–31 Jul 2024 YouGov 2,233 40% 49% –9 23% 70% –47 27% 62% –35 27% 33% –6 9% 12% –3 3% 10% –7
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think 2,012 42% 37% +5 25% 61% –36 30% 50% –20 21% 36% –15 16% 34% –18 12% 32% –20
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium 2,010 38% 20% +18 20% 42% –22 – 25% 18% +7 21% 15% +6 21% 15% +6
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think 2,005 38% 15% +23 21% 31% –10 – – – –
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov[95] 2,102 44% 47% –3 23% 70% –47 27% 65% –38 34% 29% +5 13% 16% –3 7% 14% –7
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos[96] 1,141 40% 33% +7 21% 57% –36 26% 52% –26 29% 26% +3 – –

Party approval

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Labour Conservative Reform Lib Dems Green
Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net Pos. Neg. Net
28–29 Jan 2025 Survation[12] 2,010 34% 47% –13 34% 44% –10 33% 41% –8 29% 31% –2 32% 33% –1
24–27 Jan 2025 More in Common[14] 2,009 17% 53% –36 15% 49% –34 – – –
17–20 Jan 2025 More in Common[21] 2,016 21% 56% –35 16% 49% –33 – – –
12–16 Dec 2024 Survation[97] 2,030 34% 44% –10 36% 41% –5 34% 38% –4 28% 29% –1 28% 33% –5
12–13 Dec 2024 YouGov[98] 2,215 28% 63% –35 24% 67% –43 27% 59% –32 – –
6–10 Dec 2024 More In Common[99] 2,432 20% 56% –36 18% 46% –28 – – –
8–11 Nov 2024 More In Common[100] 2,011 21% 47% –26 16% 43% –27 – 17% 23% –6 –
8–10 Nov 2024 YouGov[101] 2,099 30% 61% –31 25% 67% –42 26% 59% –33 38% 42% –4 41% 39% +2
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
9–10 Oct 2024 More In Common[102] 2,072 24% 51% –27 15% 52% –36 – – –
5–7 Oct 2024 More In Common[103] 2,023[c] 24% 51% –27 15% 53% –38 – – –
20–22 Sep 2024 YouGov[104] 2,132 32% 59% –27 24% 67% –43 26% 62% –36 37% 45% –8 40% 42% –2
24–27 Aug 2024 More In Common[105] 2,015 25% 45% –20 15% 57% –42 – – –
5–6 Aug 2024 YouGov[106] 2,163 39% 53% –14 23% 70% –47 – – –
5–8 Jul 2024 YouGov[107][95] 2,102 47% 46% +1 21% 72% –51 28% 62% –34 45% 37% +8 46% 38% +8
5–6 Jul 2024 Ipsos[108][96] 1,141 40% 34% +6 20% 59% –39 25% 51% –26 29% 28% +1 33% 28% +6

Preferred prime minister

[edit]

Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Nigel Farage Other None Don't know Lead
6–7 Feb 2025 YouGov[109] TBD 31% 20% – – – – 11
36% – 26% – – – 10
24% – –
16%
Ed Davey, LD on 16%
 – – 8
– 22% 22% – – – Tie
– 17% –
26%
Ed Davey, LD on 26%
 – – 9
– – 25%
30%
Ed Davey, LD on 30%
 – – 5
5–7 Feb 2025 Opinium[3] 2,050 24% 15% – – 46% 15% 9
28–29 Jan 2025 Survation[12] 2,010 34% 31% – – – 44% 3
24–27 Jan 2025 More in Common[14] 2,009 21% 12% 23% – 44% – 2
17 Jan 2025 YouGov[110] TBD 19% 9% 20%
8%
Ed Davey, LD on 8%
 34% – 1
10–14 Jan JL Partners[25] 2,007 29% 26% – – – 44% 3
38% – 33% – – 29% 5
10–13 Jan 2025 More in Common[111] TBD 21% 12% 20% – 47% – 1
8–10 Jan 2025 Opinium[28] 2,050 26% 16% – – 42% 16% 10
18–20 Dec 2024 Opinium[112] 2,010 25% 16% – – 41% 17% 9
13–17 Dec 2024 Ipsos[113] 1,137 32% 18% – – 27% – 14
37% – 25% – 21% – 12
– 16% 23% – 40% – 7
12–16 Dec 2024 Survation[97] 2,030 35% 30% – – – 35% 5
6–10 Dec 2024 More in Common[99] 2,432 28% 23% – – 49% – 5
26–27 Nov 2024 YouGov[114] 2,203 27% 22% – – 4% 47% 5
2 Nov 2024 Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Rishi Sunak Nigel Farage Other None Don't know Lead
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta[115] 2,135 39% 32% – – 45% 11% 7
2–4 Oct 2024 Opinium[116] 2,003 25% 19% – – 45% – 6
25–27 Sep 2024 Opinium[117] 2,049 27% 18% – – 46% 10% 9
18–20 Sep 2024 Opinium[118] 2,050 28% 18% – – 44% 10% 10
28–30 Aug 2024 Opinium[119] 2,040 34% 15% – – 40% 11% 19
14–16 Aug 2024 Opinium[120] 1,996 36% 16% – – 37% 12% 20
7–8 Aug 2024 We Think[121] 1,278 26% 10% 20%
9%
Ed Davey, LD on 5%
Carla Denyer, Green on 2%
Adrian Ramsay, Green on 2%
 20% 15% 6
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 Opinium[122] 2,063 38% 14% – – 37% 11% 24
25–26 Jul 2024 We Think[123] 2,012 30% 11% 18%
8%
Ed Davey, LD on 4%
Carla Denyer, Green on 3%
Adrian Ramsay, Green on 1%
 18% 15% 12
17–19 Jul 2024 Opinium[124] 2,010 37% 14% – – 34% 15% 23
11–12 Jul 2024 We Think[125] 2,005 30% 11% 14%
10%
Ed Davey, LD on 5%
Carla Denyer, Green on 4%
Adrian Ramsay, Green on 1%
 20% 13% 16

Other polling

[edit]

Hypothetical polling

[edit]

Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection

[edit]

For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.

Dates

conducted

Pollster Client Area Sample

size

Hypothetical Conservative leader Lab Con LD SNP Ref Grn Plaid Others Majority / lead
11–15 Oct 2024 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP)[126] Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick GB 6,289 Kemi Badenoch Seats 332 151 63 48 25 4 4 5 Lab 14
Vote share 29% 22% 12% 4% 21% 10% 1% 1% 7
Robert Jenrick Seats 311 178 58 48 24 4 4 5 Hung (Labour 15 short)
Vote share 28% 23% 12% 4% 20% 11% 1% 1% 5

Hypothetical preferred Prime Minister polling

[edit]
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Keir Starmer Kemi Badenoch Robert Jenrick None Don't know Lead
30–31 Oct 2024 YouGov[127] 2,234 27% 20% – 47% 6% 7
29% – 21% 45% 5% 8
18–20 Oct 2024 Savanta[115] 2,135 41% 23% – – 35% 18
41% – 25% – 35% 16

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Polling was of GB adults only, but 18 seats were assigned to Northern Irish parties in the reporting of the outcome.
  2. ^ Combined with a 2,000 sample nationally representative survey.
  3. ^ All of the sample was asked about their approval of the Conservative Party. Half of the sample (1,012) was asked about their approval of the Labour Party; half of the sample (1,011) were asked about their approval of the government.

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[edit]
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